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World Politics · resolved market

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$502,752
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$516,006

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $502,752 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8718…d6ddbacked Yes13c52,863$7,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,072.84837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick15cpaid+42.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb25…5ab5backed Yes13c47,627$5,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,993.58757.1%4 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.44per pick13cpaid+418.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdbd0…2e83backed Yes13c40,388$5,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,451825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes10c24,730$2,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,444.2318216.5%30 W · 152 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c13,100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.34440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes8c12,552$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.5217037.6%64 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69b0…f521backed Yes11c8,457$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb713…e322backed Yes13c7,111$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3bb…ba01backed Yes15c6,689$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.01333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f5e…573ebacked Yes14c4,419$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x709d…5501backed Yes18c4,411$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.81633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-29%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ddd…98c3backed Yes16c3,621$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.47425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+183.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb762…37bebacked Yes9c3,428$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b6d…bec8backed Yes10c3,251$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.19425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+92.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes7c3,223$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.7812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-76.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes2c3,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-41%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x639d…4777backed Yes14c3,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.75560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick26cpaid+409.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0539…feabbacked Yes9c2,886$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x711d…79aebacked Yes9c2,622$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+152.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdb1…abf9backed Yes13c2,527$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc6ff…638abacked Yes15c2,428$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4c5…3e0ebacked Yes8c2,413$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick32cpaid+92.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc333…543ebacked Yes2c2,346$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf188…ba5cbacked Yes5c2,143$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb076…7652backed Yes14c1,947$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27350%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x225f…7b7fbacked Yes10c1,923$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes10c1,871$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.5622355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38b3…9fdfbacked Yes13c1,782$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33e6…2bd8backed Yes16c1,666$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8162…7365backed Yes10c1,662$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1224…d7fdbacked Yes8c1,500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20a7…5b55backed Yes14c1,431$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+93.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes9c1,429$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.7545723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x588d…7b49backed Yes10c1,276$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.29250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+117.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc17…c01cbacked Yes12c1,258$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.942441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes7c1,186$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.122117.1%15 W · 196 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes11c1,114$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.596536.9%24 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42d1…d745backed Yes15c1,107$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.7560%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf109…4289backed Yes12c1,033$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked No78c975$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.51040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe241…5c34backed Yes10c900.94$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32d4…b3d3backed Yes17c878.04$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152875%6 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.45per pick30cpaid+204.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9b54…e070backed Yes9c869.56$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked Yes17c864$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.881827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-33.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes3c800$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2419315.5%30 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes3c780.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.24511.1%5 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf709…7697backed Yes7c715.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c25…70d3backed Yes14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes8c651.02$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.493917.9%7 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick12cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48b2…ea4ebacked Yes22c639$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cc7…e5c9backed Yes10c629.16$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe678…35d4backed Yes14c621.43$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d7a…44bdbacked Yes15c615.38$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes11c600.22$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7328434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes9c600$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552543.5%9 W · 245 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x755d…7b2fbacked Yes17c597.18$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x897a…4194backed Yes11c596$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.281520%3 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe43…af79backed No76c589$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2604…13ccbacked Yes24c581$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.441258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+49.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc24d…46cbbacked Yes8c539.05$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x046a…0a3ebacked Yes15c538.09$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0090…f680backed Yes11c509.11$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e4…471abacked Yes3c506.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1915022.7%34 W · 116 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+43%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes8c485.16$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0422029.5%65 W · 155 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b95…b407backed Yes14c483.71$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b4c…e8a9backed Yes10c458.87$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6617…d383backed Yes11c453.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78c3…171ebacked Yes11c450$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.51435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+30%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes7c444$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.083718.9%7 W · 30 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-52.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x07df…4279backed Yes15c442.56$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-51.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f5…b461backed Yes17c440$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.81241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x551b…b6afbacked Yes12c426.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dde…5240backed Yes12c418.6$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3800…a2a1backed Yes15c417.71$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes7c408.96$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4310634.9%37 W · 69 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a98…4d45backed Yes15c402.45$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26b9…6a0cbacked Yes12c400$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4840%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ead…6c75backed Yes19c399$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.81757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+88.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes10c392.64$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.031358.1%11 W · 124 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8505…8f36backed Yes10c390.53$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4451…8b60backed Yes6c389.96$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick17cpaid+7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf61b…1e6cbacked Yes7c388.96$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9891…64ccbacked Yes10c388.64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a9…d486backed Yes12c368.89$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4e84…ef69backed Yes13c362.14$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.02728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-55.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x079d…4d1bbacked Yes14c354.53$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59d6…62c8backed Yes9c346.16$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.151233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2950…7310backed Yes10c339.49$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes6c331.43$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.623953.8%21 W · 18 L+8.0wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+105%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xd2bb…4569backed Yes24c328$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.72560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes12c323.29$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2724110.8%26 W · 215 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12c2…aa71backed No76c320$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.8977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick56cpaid+102.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1405…4ee4backed Yes11c314.56$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x913a…65bdbacked Yes18c303.13$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.88333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0be3…f50cbacked Yes14c301.72$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eaa…6a93backed Yes10c298.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.46825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-42%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7334…cc1cbacked Yes10c295.42$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8367…94bcbacked Yes13c295.38$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4bcd…e98bbacked Yes22c285$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb9…5d3fbacked Yes9c270$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.31631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid+15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.