Weather · resolved market
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x192b8ae94bc46813697edd7d6d397c5c233c7dcea3450a2d274d12c884c8abfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $203,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $199,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $203,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 289 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked No | 75c | 2,090$1,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 25c | 2,070$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.74 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe47d…907bbacked No | 76c | 1,808$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed Yes | 25c | 1,800$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed Yes | 25c | 1,791$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…ee5abacked Yes | 25c | 1,730$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ce…3c8ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,581$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes | 25c | 1,529$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.25 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed No | 75c | 1,461$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.25 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…a5b8backed No | 76c | 1,344$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…2cdbbacked No | 75c | 1,342$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked No | 75c | 1,287$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…e68dbacked No | 75c | 1,270$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…6e13backed Yes | 20c | 1,263$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed Yes | 25c | 1,258$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11f…2d2cbacked Yes | 25c | 1,254$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 35cpaid | +208.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 17c | 1,207$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.26 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed Yes | 25c | 1,199$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 12c | 1,197$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.96 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…09a9backed No | 74c | 1,173$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.42 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked No | 75c | 1,147$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…88c8backed No | 75c | 1,130$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 25c | 1,088$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668b…3884backed Yes | 25c | 1,052$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…9f12backed Yes | 26c | 1,045$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25c…6d89backed No | 75c | 1,042$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ceb…7fc8backed Yes | 25c | 1,039$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…83a4backed Yes | 25c | 1,013$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed No | 75c | 976$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 25c | 975$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.75 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7176…6f9fbacked No | 75c | 969$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 75c | 943$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.75 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed Yes | 25c | 927$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed Yes | 25c | 926$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8727…83d7backed No | 80c | 917$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.4 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed Yes | 25c | 914$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked Yes | 26c | 908$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.31 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…7154backed Yes | 25c | 903$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed No | 75c | 877$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.25 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb6…5ea0backed Yes | 24c | 872$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…13ccbacked No | 75c | 872$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…1ff0backed Yes | 25c | 861$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.25 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed No | 75c | 855$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked No | 75c | 854$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes | 25c | 842$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed No | 76c | 835$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.45 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x523d…cc1dbacked No | 75c | 831$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked Yes | 25c | 829$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed Yes | 25c | 822$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked No | 74c | 816$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.16 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb212…0f8ebacked Yes | 24c | 809$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed No | 74c | 791$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.66 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7039…2d8abacked No | 80c | 785$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed No | 75c | 772$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed No | 75c | 764$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed No | 75c | 756$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…0b1ebacked Yes | 25c | 745$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…81f6backed Yes | 25c | 741$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…9bc5backed Yes | 25c | 732$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…d837backed No | 80c | 727$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa355…a3a2backed No | 75c | 718$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…e52dbacked No | 80c | 710$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked No | 75c | 707$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked Yes | 25c | 697$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b79…360fbacked Yes | 25c | 688$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…7693backed No | 75c | 688$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…67fbbacked Yes | 24c | 686$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.64 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0f…af26backed No | 75c | 685$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed Yes | 10c | 682.08$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed No | 75c | 681$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…cacebacked No | 75c | 676$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked No | 75c | 672$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed No | 76c | 657$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.68 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked No | 75c | 646$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9818…7cd3backed No | 78c | 625$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…e642backed No | 75c | 614$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 612.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked No | 75c | 608$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2b…ebedbacked No | 75c | 604$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…4569backed Yes | 21c | 604$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 77c | 588.5$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.68 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed No | 75c | 588$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.85 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204d…08cbbacked Yes | 23c | 577$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1abbbacked Yes | 24c | 576$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed No | 78c | 573$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…3c30backed Yes | 25c | 570$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…19bebacked No | 75c | 567$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…ce56backed Yes | 25c | 567$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…3701backed Yes | 24c | 560$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…f63cbacked No | 75c | 560$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.24 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…6622backed Yes | 25c | 554$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked Yes | 25c | 550$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22e7…9bc7backed No | 76c | 549$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…19c8backed Yes | 20c | 545$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes | 25c | 541$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…0f0fbacked No | 76c | 540$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…24f0backed No | 74c | 536$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed No | 75c | 531$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…c2dfbacked No | 76c | 527$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +124%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…cb94backed Yes | 20c | 525$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?this page
- Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in December?Yes won
- Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in December?No won
- Will NYC have between 6 and 7 inches of precipitation in December?No won
- Will NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in December?No won
- Will NYC have more than 7 inches of precipitation in December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.