Weather · resolved market
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x492e857e031e3ac9917366b1f20a0766e3fb9bc14d0028d8a3c5b7e2e3f9a09b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 1,937$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.01 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3874…d903backed No | 43c | 1,400$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…6e13backed No | 44c | 1,374$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.71 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…7f30backed Yes | 57c | 1,186$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…b7d3backed Yes | 56c | 1,176$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed Yes | 57c | 1,175$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.72 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 35c | 1,142$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.14 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…200fbacked No | 43c | 1,030$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.93 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…deaebacked Yes | 57c | 970$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.07 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…827bbacked No | 44c | 963$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.65 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d6…358fbacked Yes | 56c | 850$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +126.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…3701backed Yes | 58c | 844$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.32 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes | 56c | 816$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…d705backed No | 42c | 793$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.84 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 53cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6705…7ddcbacked No | 43c | 789$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…67fbbacked No | 43c | 784$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.12 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234a…cbffbacked No | 45c | 782$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c6…5791backed Yes | 57c | 777$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…4c53backed Yes | 57c | 777$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…8e90backed No | 43c | 760$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Yes | 69c | 759.86$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.84 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…7040backed Yes | 45c | 711.26$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb214…a6aabacked No | 43c | 693$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked No | 43c | 691$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.82 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…95e1backed No | 43c | 688$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.53 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf738…56bdbacked No | 45c | 626$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2145…1e5dbacked Yes | 56c | 624$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.68 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48b2…ea4ebacked No | 45c | 623$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07f…2edfbacked Yes | 57c | 623$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755e…7b04backed Yes | 57c | 618$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…0918backed No | 43c | 617$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981e…d368backed Yes | 56c | 602$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 57c | 581$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.47 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked Yes | 56c | 558$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.83 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…69e5backed Yes | 57c | 543$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.03 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked Yes | 56c | 494$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.88 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35d2…6698backed No | 43c | 493$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…3e46backed Yes | 56c | 492$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b7…d913backed Yes | 58c | 486$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed Yes | 58c | 461$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.08 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…e065backed No | 75c | 450$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…7f61backed No | 42c | 446$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…c454backed No | 42c | 402$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed Yes | 25c | 370.37$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked No | 43c | 365$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.59 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…9ef2backed No | 43c | 357$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2b…ebedbacked Yes | 57c | 335$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.72 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…ccecbacked Yes | 57c | 326$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.51 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 46c | 325.16$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.06 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204d…08cbbacked No | 43c | 324$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…0959backed No | 44c | 320$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf7…5122backed No | 76c | 317$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0acc…debabacked No | 43c | 309$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked Yes | 57c | 296$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.58 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec1…cb69backed No | 41c | 281$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c0…b919backed Yes | 24c | 278$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.72 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked Yes | 7c | 274$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…e392backed Yes | 56c | 268$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2d…caf4backed Yes | 57c | 267$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.54 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 266.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.11 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 15c | 266.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.3 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11f…2d2cbacked Yes | 14c | 262$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.53 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 35cpaid | +208.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…3888backed Yes | 59c | 242$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc4…4a8ebacked Yes | 57c | 241$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.87 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 52cpaid | +131.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…f0b5backed No | 44c | 238$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…d166backed No | 75c | 226$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb212…0f8ebacked No | 43c | 216$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a3…6448backed Yes | 59c | 211$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc94…efd5backed Yes | 29c | 209$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 36c | 208.94$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.76 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 69c | 203.5$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.81 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 30c | 203.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b2…0eb2backed No | 43c | 201$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.63 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…4d4cbacked Yes | 57c | 201$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.63 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7086…f376backed No | 71c | 178$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed Yes | 24c | 174$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.89 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed Yes | 6c | 173$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.97 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe47d…907bbacked Yes | 57c | 172$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.61 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a7a9backed Yes | 24c | 171$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.62 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 21c | 167$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.75 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed No | 45c | 160$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked Yes | 57c | 160$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.96 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c705backed Yes | 24c | 160$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.28 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 7c | 156$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.61 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked No | 41c | 153$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…5f57backed Yes | 10c | 148.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.36 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 23c | 143.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.03 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 13c | 137.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.26 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 9c | 135.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.33 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…5afdbacked No | 43c | 130$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.03 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked No | 78c | 129$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 125.46$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b8…0ec1backed No | 43c | 125$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8ad4backed No | 76c | 124$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked Yes | 21c | 123$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.42 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358d…7602backed No | 42c | 123$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…f658backed No | 43c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked No | 45c | 115$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked No | 71c | 114$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…e50fbacked No | 42c | 114$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in December?this page
- Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?No won
- Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in December?No won
- Will NYC have between 6 and 7 inches of precipitation in December?No won
- Will NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in December?No won
- Will NYC have more than 7 inches of precipitation in December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.