TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x93c0…b919

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
69
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: NBA, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 54 out of 100; worst World Politics at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+168.5%+$657.02
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$387Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$371.91
Will Iran strike Syria in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$297Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$133.3
Will Iran strike Jordan in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.25
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$44.96
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+40.8%+$124.7
Will the US strike Iran next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$180.72
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$259Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$258.78
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$634Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$633.64
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+136.4%+$293.73
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$29.39
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$64.8
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+31.6%+$49.44
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$88.26
All 14 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.04
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+150%+$58.8
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$47.84
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.48
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$314.82
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$16.74
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+55.7%+$146.97
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$156.86
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$24
Will the Utah Jazz win more than 18.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+26.6%+$38.22
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$490Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+40.8%+$200.1
All 11 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+45%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$366Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+28.2%+$103.18
Will 120 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$15.4
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$105.08
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$256.64
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+313.2%+$210.72
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+75.4%+$59.77
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+48.7%+$33.41
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+194.1%+$46.2
All 8 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Sentimental Value" win no awards at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$798Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$266
Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$106.38
Will George Clooney be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$52.08
Will Train Dreams be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+33.3%+$11.75
Will "People We Meet on Vacation" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+75.4%+$113.09
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$646Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+29.9%+$192.97
Will "Sentimental Value" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$61.88
Will "The Abandons" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 9, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+72.4%+$173.88
All 8 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+100%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $200M Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$234.9
Over $12M committed to the Space public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$59.57
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will UConn advance to the Final Four?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+203%+$507.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Dec 8, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on December 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+29.9%+$47.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$63.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will any team beat Vitalitybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$182.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.8
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.