Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b5d769970214c80e8db5e42f3dac06dafe4db74ac0ea34d529b4a910bfee8aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 239 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 63c | 7,614$4,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,839.33 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 47c | 5,734$2,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,033.63 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 37c | 5,000$1,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,859.99 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,579$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed Yes | 52c | 3,811$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,811.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 39c | 3,265$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,997.93 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 17c | 2,740$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.37 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 52c | 2,291$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.93 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 39c | 1,755$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.45 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 71c | 1,482$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.38 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 51c | 1,276$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.58 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.61 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 56c | 934.92$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.2 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…8adebacked Yes | 55c | 823$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed No | 30c | 735.42$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.15 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 37c | 681.07$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.61 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed No | 43c | 655$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.63 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed Yes | 56c | 630.76$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed No | 45c | 591$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.68 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed Yes | 51c | 581$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 50c | 573$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed No | 45c | 568$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc94…efd5backed Yes | 57c | 538$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 59c | 533.34$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.35 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked Yes | 56c | 532$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed No | 43c | 526$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 34c | 510.22$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.7 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3f…cc4fbacked Yes | 79c | 508.8$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.93 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked Yes | 56c | 472$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…6cb4backed No | 46c | 461$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.47 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked No | 47c | 451$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.22 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6034…b5fdbacked Yes | 58c | 446$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.32 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked No | 44c | 434$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.08 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1327…9237backed No | 47c | 425.56$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…09dcbacked Yes | 52c | 422$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.83 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 19c | 415.25$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…e9adbacked No | 41c | 403.44$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.41 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 40c | 399.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac89…ba4cbacked No | 50c | 393$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…50ecbacked No | 43c | 388$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 56c | 385.91$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.58 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked No | 45c | 381$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 26c | 375.52$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.21 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 57c | 364.44$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +142.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f91…d531backed No | 22c | 356$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 45c | 349.26$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.91 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed No | 42c | 349$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8414…3d65backed No | 15c | 343.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed No | 49c | 324$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.52 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked No | 45c | 323$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…05d2backed Yes | 54c | 322$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 317$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked Yes | 53c | 305$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.35 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked No | 43c | 301$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.43 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 51c | 298.37$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.55 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed Yes | 53c | 296$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked No | 41c | 281$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.21 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 57c | 281$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.83 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2e…fe02backed No | 46c | 275$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Yes | 55c | 273$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.85 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed Yes | 57c | 272$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.47 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed Yes | 59c | 269$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed Yes | 57c | 263$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.09 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 65c | 250$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 62c | 250$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed Yes | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ad…b2bbbacked No | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed No | 41c | 234$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.94 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed Yes | 57c | 232$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.76 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 54c | 230.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.33 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed No | 45c | 228$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…648ebacked No | 52c | 228$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.14 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…f199backed Yes | 54c | 224$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.04 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 58c | 221$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.82 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked Yes | 27c | 220$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…0c32backed No | 43c | 220$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25c…6d89backed No | 47c | 219$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe513…b842backed No | 44c | 216$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes | 55c | 215$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed No | 44c | 208$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.52 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9a…cc24backed Yes | 29c | 207$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.97 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…e065backed Yes | 57c | 206$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.58 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 5c | 205.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…5709backed No | 42c | 205$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed No | 38c | 200.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.03 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 46c | 196$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed No | 47c | 191$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.77 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 48c | 190.71$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…db27backed No | 46c | 190$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked No | 43c | 190$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed No | 44c | 180$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…8085backed Yes | 55c | 176$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7546…2d93backed No | 41c | 174$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 46c | 173.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.44 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5880…a675backed No | 43c | 173$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in November 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in November 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in November 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in November 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in November 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.