Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in November 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22a71002458379d8e8077a2f7dec411318c25f42f3b8d1ef55eae095e21dcce5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,290$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.49 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,853$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1327…9237backed Yes | 5c | 1,666$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.78 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 3c | 1,428$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 2c | 999.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 882.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 11c | 779.47$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.18 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 2c | 726.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 2c | 692.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 4c | 575.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 7c | 533.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed Yes | 4c | 456$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 5c | 421$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 5c | 381$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed Yes | 3c | 331.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes | 5c | 282$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes | 5c | 273.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05fb…e912backed Yes | 7c | 225.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 14c | 199$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked Yes | 8c | 120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…03cbbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in November 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in November 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in November 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in November 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in November 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.