Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in November 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31ee1b81bfe9351d88ce8ac972df18d3637d396eb71685fceccc269aa5ba0ac2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 18c | 8,904$1,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,601.83 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 13c | 4,969$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.17 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed Yes | 22c | 3,970$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 24c | 2,310$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.74 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 12c | 2,022$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.31 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 19c | 2,000$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.28 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 19c | 1,963$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.87 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,740$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.42 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1327…9237backed No | 75c | 1,678$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.48 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…46eabacked Yes | 34c | 1,668$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.23 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…648dbacked Yes | 68c | 1,655$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 19c | 1,492$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.85 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 23c | 1,009$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.64 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 9c | 991.63$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.47 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 4c | 809.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 22c | 658$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.66 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 13c | 636$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.94 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes | 13c | 616$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.92 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes | 10c | 603$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 77c | 585.47$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.24 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…ebc2backed Yes | 13c | 565$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed No | 80c | 546$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.46 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 10c | 533.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 532.22$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 69c | 474.3$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.7 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 72c | 447.9$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.16 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 28c | 437$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.89 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 10c | 419$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked Yes | 15c | 397.1$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 69c | 391$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.21 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed No | 78c | 382$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.34 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed Yes | 12c | 374$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 18c | 374$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +142.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked Yes | 28c | 372$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ad…b2bbbacked No | 79c | 370$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Yes | 12c | 361$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked No | 66c | 349.51$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…b2fabacked Yes | 13c | 345$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed No | 79c | 333$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed Yes | 15c | 321$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked Yes | 10c | 306$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed Yes | 31c | 290$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 21c | 286$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 22c | 286$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed Yes | 28c | 276$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…be9fbacked Yes | 15c | 274$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…8919backed No | 76c | 273$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed No | 68c | 272$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.04 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked No | 72c | 271$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.88 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed No | 72c | 262$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.36 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…6cb4backed No | 75c | 259$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed Yes | 4c | 247$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed No | 77c | 245$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.93 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 28c | 239.08$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…09dcbacked No | 55c | 232$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…f4d1backed No | 68c | 220$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…e748backed Yes | 43c | 216$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba6b…b341backed Yes | 25c | 215$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Yes | 32c | 204$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07c5…2dacbacked No | 68c | 200$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.34per pick | 62cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b32…c8a9backed Yes | 7c | 199.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 11c | 199$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…8adebacked Yes | 9c | 197$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 70c | 193$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.37 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 28c | 185.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a73…9daabacked Yes | 22c | 185.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…1146backed Yes | 28c | 180$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed No | 77c | 180$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked Yes | 12c | 178$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…c93dbacked Yes | 18c | 175$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed Yes | 42c | 169$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed Yes | 10c | 167$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac89…ba4cbacked Yes | 24c | 165$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6f…6890backed No | 57c | 165$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 159$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed Yes | 32c | 149$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…c17abacked No | 43c | 149$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 75c | 148.16$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed Yes | 11c | 148$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked Yes | 13c | 148$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 77c | 147$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed Yes | 8c | 139$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked No | 73c | 132$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb85b…77dbbacked Yes | 14c | 132$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…dcb1backed No | 73c | 130$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…2261backed Yes | 25c | 127$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59f3…a7fabacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…c913backed Yes | 13c | 122$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…50ecbacked Yes | 24c | 121$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…8191backed Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…2cf4backed No | 80c | 117$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…87d5backed Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2b…fd2cbacked Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a7a9backed Yes | 24c | 106$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed No | 68c | 105$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…03debacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in November 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in November 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in November 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in November 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in November 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.