TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x07c5…2dac

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
62
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 58 out of 100; worst Weather at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+49.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+41.2%+$10.51
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.14
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$37.73
Will the Washington Wizards have the worst record in the NBA?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$219Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$933.93
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$378Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$377.78
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder finish with the best record in the NBA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.43
Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.8
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$405Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$127.92
Will Lauri Markkanen be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$423Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+29.9%+$126.27
Will Jonathan Kuminga be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$229Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+29.9%+$68.31
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.36
Will Frankenstein win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$49.3
Will "Wuthering Heights" Third Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+88.7%+$8.93
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+40.8%+$98.02
Will Jesse Plemons be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+25%+$10
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$37.6
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+257.1%+$87.12
Will Wagner Moura be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+47.1%+$11.52
Will Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$43.68
"The Witcher: Season 4" Rotten Tomatoes score is less than 45?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$14.42
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+93.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.3
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$163.35
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$309Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$688.62
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$200.08
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$190.4
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.62
Will "Apple Intelligence" be said 5+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+127.3%+$107.52
Will "Sanders" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+733.3%+$758.56
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$293Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$293.46
Will Squid Game be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$51.94
All 10 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.34per pick62cpaid-59.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Weather — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 26, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+138%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+112.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$70.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Seattle Seahawks be eliminated in the Divisional Round?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+69.5%+$93.89
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$406Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$182.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$37.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$11.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Appalachian State Mountaineersbacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Querétaro FC win on 2026-02-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.