Movies · resolved market
Will "Wuthering Heights" Third Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74add2026fa4b82788308ce7aef92341ba77b325984f5645c5cf070d75fb5c05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb028…8686backed No | 63c | 3,558$2,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.56 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 1c | 2,488$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked No | 78c | 2,274$1,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.64 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed No | 55c | 1,209$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.21 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…53dcbacked Yes | 47c | 1,110$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.7 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 50c | 1,088$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.2 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 49c | 999.47$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.75 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 50c | 997$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.5 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed No | 53c | 743$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 638.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed Yes | 36c | 615.86$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.3 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes | 45c | 558$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.1 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 4c | 506.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…17fbbacked Yes | 45c | 488$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes | 24c | 428$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…758bbacked No | 76c | 428$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.72 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 35c | 399.58$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.42 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…e748backed No | 53c | 348$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.56 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 305.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 10c | 221.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 45c | 169$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9400…4f20backed No | 57c | 158.28$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 28c | 139.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 41c | 134.81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 28c | 131.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 14c | 81.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 72c | 46.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…7636backed Yes | 44c | 45.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768a…4f50backed Yes | 29c | 39.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 64c | 32.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 67c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 46c | 22.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 64c | 22.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07c5…2dacbacked No | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Wuthering Heights" Third Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?this page
- Will "Wuthering Heights" Third Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?Yes won
- Will "Wuthering Heights" Third Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?No won
- Will "Wuthering Heights" Third Weekend Box Office be greater than 9m?No won
- Will "Wuthering Heights" Third Weekend Box Office be less than 6m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.