Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "real peace" or "legitimate peace" during Israel President events on December 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69abab01eaa326d0701728653e544aae1829015be4eb2529c74ecc8f24defc5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed No | 47c | 979$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.13 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed Yes | 53c | 797$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.59 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed Yes | 53c | 718$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.46 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde6f…4a7bbacked No | 3c | 712.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked No | 47c | 429$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.63 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 10cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked No | 47c | 393$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.71 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 49c | 265$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.69 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 45c | 247.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.61 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…f815backed Yes | 53c | 160$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07c5…2dacbacked Yes | 53c | 152$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +138%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 24c | 148.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…c03abacked No | 44c | 131.56$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +97%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 41c | 105.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…42a9backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed No | 58c | 87.49$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed Yes | 59c | 84.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23ea…fbf2backed Yes | 48c | 67.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 55c | 52.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbc…3b3cbacked Yes | 59c | 51.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce94…5d59backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6159…7501backed No | 47c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…8039backed No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x851f…e946backed Yes | 55c | 37.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…437dbacked Yes | 56c | 35.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Yes | 50c | 32.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb75…2c13backed No | 62c | 32.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…603bbacked Yes | 62c | 32.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ec…5b3dbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7176…6f9fbacked Yes | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb30…722bbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9947…9d9ebacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf72e…5928backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…eea3backed No | 77c | 15.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "real peace" or "legitimate peace" during Israel President events on December 29?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "F-35" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" 12+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hamas" or "Hezbollah" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hanukkah" or "Chanukah" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Syria" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Turkey" or "Erdogan" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "border" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hostage" 4+ times during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "pardon" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "phase two" or "second phase" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say the N-word during Israel President events on December 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.