TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Israel President events on December 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$46,225
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,476

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,225 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5109…5e9cbacked No1c11,457$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.217530.9%54 W · 121 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked No43c1,084$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.122343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1bf…a751backed Yes53c916$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.521968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.5wins+0.23per pick45cpaid+81.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed Yes74c887.96$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.774259.5%25 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No25c867$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.8149023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd907…f15fbacked Yes57c863$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.091241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x993c…eae0backed No47c792$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.24633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdaf…f63cbacked Yes54c728$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.881050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…7260backed No43c664$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.521050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+38.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x373c…afbcbacked Yes61c661.89$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.07580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+62.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6cb…ac3dbacked No47c646$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.62837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f10…cbbdbacked Yes63c604.51$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.3666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+69.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde6f…4a7bbacked No3c597.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.62250%11 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+22.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84d6…bca9backed Yes57c576$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.682842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5884…3191backed No46c564$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.44933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+42.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x190a…4ab4backed Yes59c539.74$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ad…b0cfbacked No45c509.99$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.261526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-29.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1cc6…16abbacked No42c500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21040%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x23c1…704bbacked Yes53c474$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.781650%8 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x578a…7eddbacked No53c444.48$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.18742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x245b…d6bebacked No3c395.52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.61010%1 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-66.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04d4…be7cbacked Yes57c371$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.531513.3%2 W · 13 L-5.1wins-0.34per pick47cpaid-73.2%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No36c318.65$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.335819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b1b…9457backed Yes51c300$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc90…00aebacked No52c291.72$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.781457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ecb…b5e3backed No43c283$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.692445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf58d…a617backed No43c260$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.82128.6%6 W · 15 L-3.4wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No57c252.92$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2922547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba88…3138backed No51c248.11$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f5…d7aabacked Yes57c245$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.351947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x187f…f16ebacked No45c243.11$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde2b…73a0backed Yes57c236$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.482147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+41.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No9c208.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.192384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984050%20 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+33.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed No44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887939.2%31 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes53c195.65$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.347640.8%31 W · 45 L+7.4wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+2.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xea50…f79ebacked Yes59c186.78$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.78633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x451a…a0c9backed No46c164$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.44922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.33per pick55cpaid-65.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No23c161.08$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9419056.3%107 W · 83 L+16.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked No43c156.75$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.991822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-41.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c94…1175backed No44c137.02$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-78.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f32…1532backed No47c128.09$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-52.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked No39c121.94$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.794843.8%21 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c65…845dbacked No9c120$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.68955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No44c117$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4286542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c04…ac99backed No43c116$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.821526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick34cpaid+23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4964339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4513738%52 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x582d…c221backed No43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5045843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed No46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464233.3%14 W · 28 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xec3a…a709backed Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.913100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+53.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa51b…d6f0backed Yes61c81.74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.74475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes52c73.29$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2685725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x9794…d082backed Yes56c71.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbee…a34fbacked No56c61.16$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.39560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes57c57.13$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.516173.9%119 W · 42 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No44c49.19$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6434143.4%148 W · 193 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c82…c8ccbacked No39c48.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64c2…c527backed Yes53c48$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.562763%17 W · 10 L+5.1wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+45.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes30c47.62$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.357856.4%44 W · 34 L+8.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+36.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1d8e…b1c7backed No42c47.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes45c47.38$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.064940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a9…d58bbacked No40c45.46$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5f7…42a9backed No38c44.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No37c40.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9389617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7463…59b3backed Yes51c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5875%6 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes53c39.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.66046.7%28 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.468132.1%26 W · 55 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c81…b412backed Yes53c37.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x651a…9f8fbacked Yes55c36.13$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.13666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1761…5ec5backed No57c35.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-55.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6079…81c6backed Yes43c35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.841136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-32.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdc0a…ccdcbacked No34c35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.05633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-45.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes51c34.95$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9912524.8%31 W · 94 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-47.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xecf8…603bbacked Yes60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.33977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a43…14e8backed Yes61c32.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.96650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ed5…8aa5backed No62c32.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc83…e1aabacked Yes50c31.22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa11d…1d0dbacked No56c30.04$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.871233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-47.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeacd…8143backed No50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155747.4%27 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f64…9138backed No53c28.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151741.2%7 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61ae…a52abacked Yes56c26.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0729…4e62backed No63c25.06$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.79633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.253844.7%17 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e56…91f2backed Yes53c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.755100%5 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+100.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed No71c22.96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.251080%8 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+35.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe274…eea3backed No54c22.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.251637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-44.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2420…ce7fbacked No56c21.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.13922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-51%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes48c21.46$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.264456.8%25 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+31.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x96b4…e52bbacked Yes62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5384…7408backed Yes67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.64010%4 W · 36 L-5.5wins-0.14per pick24cpaid-82%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.436634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.