Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Israel President events on December 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf74c3c39906e8a36fa84853841951994cc1449d1360200239ad9a5834876e1df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 1c | 11,457$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 43c | 1,084$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.12 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed Yes | 53c | 916$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.52 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Yes | 74c | 887.96$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.77 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 25c | 867$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.81 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked Yes | 57c | 863$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.09 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…eae0backed No | 47c | 792$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…f63cbacked Yes | 54c | 728$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed No | 43c | 664$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373c…afbcbacked Yes | 61c | 661.89$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.07 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cb…ac3dbacked No | 47c | 646$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…cbbdbacked Yes | 63c | 604.51$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde6f…4a7bbacked No | 3c | 597.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed Yes | 57c | 576$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.68 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed No | 46c | 564$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x190a…4ab4backed Yes | 59c | 539.74$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ad…b0cfbacked No | 45c | 509.99$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.26 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc6…16abbacked No | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23c1…704bbacked Yes | 53c | 474$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.78 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…7eddbacked No | 53c | 444.48$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…d6bebacked No | 3c | 395.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked Yes | 57c | 371$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.53 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.34per pick | 47cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 36c | 318.65$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.3 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…9457backed Yes | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 52c | 291.72$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.78 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed No | 43c | 283$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.69 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed No | 43c | 260$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 57c | 252.92$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.29 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba88…3138backed No | 51c | 248.11$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked Yes | 57c | 245$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.35 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…f16ebacked No | 45c | 243.11$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed Yes | 57c | 236$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.48 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 9c | 208.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 53c | 195.65$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.34 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea50…f79ebacked Yes | 59c | 186.78$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed No | 46c | 164$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 55cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 23c | 161.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked No | 43c | 156.75$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…1175backed No | 44c | 137.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…1532backed No | 47c | 128.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 39c | 121.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…845dbacked No | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 117$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…ac99backed No | 43c | 116$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582d…c221backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…d6f0backed Yes | 61c | 81.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 52c | 73.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9794…d082backed Yes | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbee…a34fbacked No | 56c | 61.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 57c | 57.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 44c | 49.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c82…c8ccbacked No | 39c | 48.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 53c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 30c | 47.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8e…b1c7backed No | 42c | 47.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 45c | 47.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked No | 40c | 45.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…42a9backed No | 38c | 44.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 37c | 40.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…59b3backed Yes | 51c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 53c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c81…b412backed Yes | 53c | 37.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x651a…9f8fbacked Yes | 55c | 36.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1761…5ec5backed No | 57c | 35.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked No | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 51c | 34.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…603bbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a43…14e8backed Yes | 61c | 32.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed5…8aa5backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc83…e1aabacked Yes | 50c | 31.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11d…1d0dbacked No | 56c | 30.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9138backed No | 53c | 28.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ae…a52abacked Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…4e62backed No | 63c | 25.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e56…91f2backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed No | 71c | 22.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…eea3backed No | 54c | 22.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2420…ce7fbacked No | 56c | 21.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -51%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 48c | 21.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…e52bbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…7408backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.5wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -82%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Israel President events on December 29?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "F-35" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" 12+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hamas" or "Hezbollah" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hanukkah" or "Chanukah" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Syria" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Turkey" or "Erdogan" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "border" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hostage" 4+ times during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "pardon" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "phase two" or "second phase" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "real peace" or "legitimate peace" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say the N-word during Israel President events on December 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.