Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "phase two" or "second phase" during Israel President events on December 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab8270630627edc601c7381f8be00f3c6961c2ea0a121eec04d92db32b7acfff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x245b…d6bebacked Yes | 2c | 663.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…42a9backed No | 32c | 549.98$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.33 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 16c | 444.19$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.88 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 18c | 442.04$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.21 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…60e9backed Yes | 74c | 409.62$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.72 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 24c | 382.77$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.83 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Yes | 68c | 340$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…b1c5backed Yes | 48c | 271$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…cbbdbacked Yes | 75c | 257.15$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 73c | 205.58$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…88dfbacked Yes | 70c | 199.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13c5…19a4backed No | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…c03abacked No | 25c | 174.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +97%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked No | 31c | 162.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…4007backed No | 28c | 147.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.09 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked No | 21c | 144.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf141…d9aabacked Yes | 75c | 133.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 52c | 130$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 67c | 122.18$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.3 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed No | 27c | 101$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 159 | 22.6%36 W · 123 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 38c | 98.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 77c | 97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.65 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 42c | 90.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed Yes | 58c | 90$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e7…122bbacked No | 29c | 82.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +62%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…8a54backed No | 24c | 80$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…b5dabacked Yes | 76c | 80$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…f280backed No | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…3f27backed Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79e8…1028backed Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked No | 31c | 64.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa406…bd18backed No | 19c | 56.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x867d…3f3bbacked Yes | 67c | 54.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…6fc0backed No | 22c | 53.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed No | 35c | 52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54b…aa14backed Yes | 72c | 51.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 79c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf72e…5928backed Yes | 75c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b5…cf5fbacked No | 25c | 46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…3158backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb0…ae76backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…9e4fbacked Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x651a…9f8fbacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Yes | 71c | 23.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b00…3b6bbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…852fbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0eb…2d82backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbead…2eadbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b47…cb0bbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6f…3836backed Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 70c | 16.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…eea3backed No | 73c | 16.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…845dbacked Yes | 78c | 14.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "phase two" or "second phase" during Israel President events on December 29?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "F-35" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" 12+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hamas" or "Hezbollah" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hanukkah" or "Chanukah" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Syria" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Turkey" or "Erdogan" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "border" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hostage" 4+ times during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "pardon" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "real peace" or "legitimate peace" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say the N-word during Israel President events on December 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.