TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Israel President events on December 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,288
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$56,186

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,288 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2525…b919backed No5c7,926$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.0427643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde6f…4a7bbacked No6c6,601$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.912250%11 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+22.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed No5c2,978$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.914335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No7c2,556$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.9419056.3%107 W · 83 L+16.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x055e…f94fbacked Yes79c2,257$1,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.37785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick68cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No21c1,938$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.514940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked No16c1,910$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.853652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23d9…3a2ebacked Yes70c1,800$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick59cpaid-60.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked No8c1,628$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.1713639%53 W · 83 L+12.0wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+89.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Yes65c1,450$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.481656.3%9 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+37.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed No7c1,275$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.21735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-38.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed No16c1,016$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.167939.2%31 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No2c996.41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.448641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No8c986.31$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.589154.9%50 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x331d…a3a8backed No10c975.14$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff05…fad7backed No2c887.11$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.85190%0 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb5f7…42a9backed No35c883.8$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3111942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked No2c876.47$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-53.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No4c858.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2348923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No12c733.36$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8913746%63 W · 74 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe699…8790backed No6c700$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.28450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No3c666$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9815625%39 W · 117 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+79.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed No10c589.89$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.413950.4%70 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed No23c467.29$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.755648.2%27 W · 29 L+6.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+94.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6d1e…ce59backed No9c465.89$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked No4c463.65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7333741.2%139 W · 198 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No12c458.52$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0513342.1%56 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed No52c433.18$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.043923.1%9 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-49.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No3c361.77$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.882384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a23…bfddbacked No4c346.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked No32c340$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1104843.8%21 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa406…bd18backed No8c326.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.81250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No20c325.15$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5989617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No36c305.2$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.8529653.7%159 W · 137 L+20.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+104.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3f8…503abacked No20c304.64$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.51825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-50%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f32…1532backed No35c286.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-52.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43c5…4d00backed No8c258.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b2f…d8f8backed No16c186.84$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.547657.9%44 W · 32 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+40.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes46c170$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.849023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No40c166.82$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8835819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb451…7040backed No8c131.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2f9…eb15backed No35c128.57$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cd9…5203backed Yes68c121.64$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked No39c119.95$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1712524.8%31 W · 94 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-47.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c82…c8ccbacked No29c119.54$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6636…bf37backed No15c117.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.651315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-59.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc63a…6fc0backed No14c112.75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.91553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick35cpaid+30.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7133backed Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c04…ac99backed No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick34cpaid+23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0729…4e62backed No19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa11d…1d0dbacked No25c82.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.171233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-47.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes76c71.5$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2416173.9%119 W · 42 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e46…607ebacked Yes57c70.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x632e…1e5abacked No17c68.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1260%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No40c62.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2517449.4%86 W · 88 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x89f3…04d0backed No35c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes63c54.02$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9911424.6%28 W · 86 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2064339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x350e…6539backed No35c48.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc336…9f48backed No55c48$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.42556%14 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+53.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbdaf…f63cbacked Yes45c48$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.41050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a9…d58bbacked No38c47.05$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bb3…5affbacked Yes55c45.55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.55560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb57a…5cfcbacked No45c44.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+51%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143161.3%19 W · 12 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+35.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes44c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.510153.5%54 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7b6…3158backed Yes53c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.83953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+49.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No44c37.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8734234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked No33c37.92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.538132.1%26 W · 55 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x651a…9f8fbacked Yes57c35.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.17666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x35a9…c87abacked No39c31.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.081030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xecf8…603bbacked Yes66c30.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes55c30.22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.64050%20 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+33.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2df5…51acbacked No57c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.17857.7%45 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes65c29.93$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4386542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe274…eea3backed No37c28.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.731637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-44.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8ec…5b3dbacked Yes72c23.77$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.773100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+67.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61ae…a52abacked Yes62c20.03$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55cc…57ffbacked Yes65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce61…702fbacked Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b79…8a97backed Yes51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+22%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.836634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes61c19.82$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.716046.7%28 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x56da…fca2backed No53c19.65$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.321838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.