Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Israel President events on December 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a5578ca9b6790213951aae24929478a7e11ccbd50574b7436b9cf97c8d344ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 5c | 7,926$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.04 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde6f…4a7bbacked No | 6c | 6,601$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.91 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed No | 5c | 2,978$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.9 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 7c | 2,556$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.94 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…f94fbacked Yes | 79c | 2,257$1,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.37 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 21c | 1,938$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.51 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 16c | 1,910$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.85 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d9…3a2ebacked Yes | 70c | 1,800$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 8c | 1,628$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.17 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Yes | 65c | 1,450$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.48 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…60e9backed No | 7c | 1,275$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 16c | 1,016$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.16 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 2c | 996.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 8c | 986.31$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.58 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…a3a8backed No | 10c | 975.14$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed No | 2c | 887.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…42a9backed No | 35c | 883.8$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked No | 2c | 876.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 4c | 858.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 12c | 733.36$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe699…8790backed No | 6c | 700$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 3c | 666$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 10c | 589.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 23c | 467.29$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…ce59backed No | 9c | 465.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 4c | 463.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 12c | 458.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed No | 52c | 433.18$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.04 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 3c | 361.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…bfddbacked No | 4c | 346.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 32c | 340$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa406…bd18backed No | 8c | 326.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 20c | 325.15$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.59 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 36c | 305.2$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.85 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked No | 20c | 304.64$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…1532backed No | 35c | 286.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43c5…4d00backed No | 8c | 258.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d8f8backed No | 16c | 186.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 46c | 170$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 40c | 166.82$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb451…7040backed No | 8c | 131.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed No | 35c | 128.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…5203backed Yes | 68c | 121.64$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 39c | 119.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c82…c8ccbacked No | 29c | 119.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed No | 15c | 117.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…6fc0backed No | 14c | 112.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…ac99backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…4e62backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11d…1d0dbacked No | 25c | 82.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 76c | 71.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e46…607ebacked Yes | 57c | 70.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…1e5abacked No | 17c | 68.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…04d0backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 63c | 54.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed No | 35c | 48.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed No | 55c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…f63cbacked Yes | 45c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked No | 38c | 47.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…5affbacked Yes | 55c | 45.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57a…5cfcbacked No | 45c | 44.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +51%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…3158backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 44c | 37.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked No | 33c | 37.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x651a…9f8fbacked Yes | 57c | 35.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a9…c87abacked No | 39c | 31.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…603bbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 55c | 30.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 65c | 29.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…eea3backed No | 37c | 28.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ec…5b3dbacked Yes | 72c | 23.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ae…a52abacked Yes | 62c | 20.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55cc…57ffbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce61…702fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b79…8a97backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 61c | 19.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed No | 53c | 19.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Israel President events on December 29?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "F-35" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" 12+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hamas" or "Hezbollah" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hanukkah" or "Chanukah" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Syria" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Turkey" or "Erdogan" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "border" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hostage" 4+ times during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "pardon" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "phase two" or "second phase" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "real peace" or "legitimate peace" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say the N-word during Israel President events on December 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.