Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "Hamas" or "Hezbollah" during Israel President events on December 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e0c5054cb3ee522c689e00a72e0e1cc874293cb613ea835059fce6df7a35957
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 0c | 11,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 0c | 8,664$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 2c | 4,513$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.25 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…42a9backed No | 20c | 3,600$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.53 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…1e5abacked No | 0c | 2,964$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 15c | 2,199$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.7 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 5c | 1,337$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.37 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 12c | 1,071$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.32 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8119…50bfbacked No | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 8c | 952.81$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 699.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 8c | 413.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaf…ee69backed No | 19c | 411.6$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…8733backed No | 15c | 400$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked No | 11c | 306.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 77c | 299.99$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Yes | 76c | 299.98$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed No | 4c | 266.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 9c | 245.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 16c | 238.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdb…d1e1backed No | 10c | 198.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked No | 23c | 170.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed No | 21c | 149.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb75c…0539backed Yes | 76c | 140$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 76c | 131.26$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked No | 14c | 128.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf141…d9aabacked Yes | 79c | 126.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf72e…5928backed Yes | 80c | 117.47$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 17c | 106.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9211…ae7abacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6737…5d94backed Yes | 78c | 95$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 85.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 19c | 73.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed No | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1da9…8928backed Yes | 80c | 69.85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb5…440cbacked Yes | 75c | 58.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf75…92cfbacked No | 24c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b5…cf5fbacked No | 24c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…ae19backed Yes | 80c | 25.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +162.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed Yes | 76c | 24.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…34f7backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8124…938fbacked Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "Hamas" or "Hezbollah" during Israel President events on December 29?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "F-35" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" 12+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hanukkah" or "Chanukah" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Syria" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Turkey" or "Erdogan" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "border" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hostage" 4+ times during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "pardon" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "phase two" or "second phase" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "real peace" or "legitimate peace" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say the N-word during Israel President events on December 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.