Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "pardon" during Israel President events on December 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f65bf28b7957d730b216d4f74a9a1c047e426cbd6bb5532c7dcecf274c6bd88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 1c | 11,307$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.85 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 3c | 8,558$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.24 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…f94fbacked Yes | 77c | 3,125$2,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.89 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 11c | 2,393$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.6 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 22c | 2,331$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.83 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes | 72c | 2,319$1,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.88 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 41c | 2,132$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.21 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 13c | 1,924$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.94 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 18c | 1,821$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.95 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 13c | 1,809$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.09 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac95…df88backed Yes | 57c | 1,566$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…3f27backed Yes | 80c | 1,144$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.13 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…eefabacked Yes | 80c | 1,143$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…1ccbbacked No | 66c | 994$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.04 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 34c | 898$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.68 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 57c | 758.36$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.24 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 18c | 600$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1710…3344backed Yes | 41c | 585.24$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Yes | 72c | 552.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc886…696fbacked Yes | 34c | 546$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +88%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 29c | 456.96$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.98 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed No | 5c | 426.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed No | 66c | 409$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.94 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 17c | 366.71$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ff…e17ebacked Yes | 73c | 342.28$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…75e7backed No | 66c | 324$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.84 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 34c | 324$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.84 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…437dbacked Yes | 38c | 259.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 54c | 230$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.1 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 14c | 219.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb8…5e8fbacked Yes | 56c | 211.39$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.39 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 78c | 209.71$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 36c | 203.95$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.81 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed No | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +116%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…7424backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 18c | 172.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed Yes | 65c | 155.61$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.06 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…6fc0backed No | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 59c | 138.61$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 154 | 34.4%53 W · 101 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 49c | 127.03$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed Yes | 78c | 120.61$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 27c | 120.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ad…b0cfbacked No | 71c | 120$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.38 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 56c | 112$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeac6…f9f7backed No | 72c | 110.69$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…ac99backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228a…2a55backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 24c | 78.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…b8a2backed No | 22c | 77.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed Yes | 33c | 76.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed No | 66c | 68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 63.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa0…ac6bbacked Yes | 32c | 61.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +208.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 19c | 58.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…6459backed No | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad4e…12f1backed No | 59c | 51.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked No | 70c | 49.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked No | 61c | 49.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed Yes | 61c | 46.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…603bbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7d…5bd2backed Yes | 78c | 41.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes | 58c | 39.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Yes | 36c | 39.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes | 32c | 39.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb70c…0af4backed Yes | 69c | 38.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 64c | 38.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa11d…1d0dbacked No | 56c | 37.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa406…bd18backed No | 55c | 36.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d4…ce7dbacked Yes | 61c | 32.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf72e…5928backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf356…577cbacked Yes | 62c | 26.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed No | 62c | 26.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8124…938fbacked Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8985…3032backed Yes | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b0…000dbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55cc…57ffbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…7eddbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35a9…c87abacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b31…07cbbacked Yes | 63c | 19.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…eea3backed No | 71c | 18.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Yes | 56c | 18.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked No | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfde9…06fdbacked No | 74c | 17.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e96…c895backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…f7a8backed Yes | 67c | 16.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "pardon" during Israel President events on December 29?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "F-35" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" 12+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hamas" or "Hezbollah" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hanukkah" or "Chanukah" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Syria" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Turkey" or "Erdogan" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "border" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hostage" 4+ times during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "phase two" or "second phase" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "real peace" or "legitimate peace" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say the N-word during Israel President events on December 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.