Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "border" during Israel President events on December 29?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb2753ceb17c793035fecd4dbe645681054bcc1e0d2446e0ebdc05990e9282bf

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $5,452
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $5,368

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,452 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xac95…df88backed Yes	37c	341.06$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.9	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	56cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed No	46c	339.45$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182.67	176	46.6%82 W · 94 L	+5.0wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebe7…068abacked Yes	50c	201.47$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.72	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes	48c	199.57$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.97	40	50%20 W · 20 L	+4.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked No	52c	143$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.17	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	+48.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c04…ac99backed No	52c	101$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.98	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	34cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb1d…6c0bbacked No	44c	100$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.7	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	47c	99.99$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	643	39.3%253 W · 390 L	-59.4wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	21c	88.77$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.25	857	25.2%216 W · 641 L	-115.1wins	-0.13per pick	39cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0xf141…d9aabacked Yes	62c	86.93$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.5	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	55c	82.62$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.08	865	42.3%366 W · 499 L	-3.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3be0…9836backed No	50c	79.89$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.95	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-4.3wins	-0.14per pick	43cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No	36c	66.65$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.66	341	43.4%148 W · 193 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44b8…6459backed No	53c	66.28$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.44	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	55c	64.63$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.55	39	41%16 W · 23 L	+3.4wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+31%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x63ed…437dbacked Yes	64c	62.5$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Yes	62c	57.89$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.89	78	38.5%30 W · 48 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6737…5d94backed Yes	59c	55$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.71	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ad…b0cfbacked No	52c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-3.4wins	-0.23per pick	50cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb51c…502dbacked Yes	53c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	+2.3wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+68.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfde9…06fdbacked No	44c	45.91$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.91	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	64cpaid	+21%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d65…0ddabacked No	42c	39.99$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.2	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.58per pick	42cpaid	+138.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6342…79c8backed Yes	58c	38.5$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.33	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.58per pick	58cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes	51c	35.26$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.9	98	27.6%27 W · 71 L	-7.7wins	-0.08per pick	35cpaid	-46%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed No	44c	35$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.75	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+1.8wins	+0.18per pick	62cpaid	+35.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41cb…a5dfbacked No	44c	35$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.5	59	55.9%33 W · 26 L	+5.2wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked No	50c	34.91$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.45	125	24.8%31 W · 94 L	-9.5wins	-0.08per pick	32cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	48c	32.94$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.96	358	19%68 W · 290 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-35%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc83…e1aabacked Yes	52c	31.22$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.23	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes	79c	30$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.7	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf341…f929backed Yes	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2420…ce7fbacked Yes	55c	25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.75	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.1wins	-0.23per pick	45cpaid	-51%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes	50c	24.91$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.45	81	32.1%26 W · 55 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa11d…1d0dbacked No	43c	23.39$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.32	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.7wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fde…cbbebacked No	50c	20.97$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.49	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	+3.4wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcfb3…e68cbacked Yes	56c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aa9…87fdbacked Yes	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	60	46.7%28 W · 32 L	-4.5wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfa5…3f52backed Yes	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb676…48c7backed Yes	64c	15.63$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump say "border" during Israel President events on December 29?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event