Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Israel President events on December 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x454fb3cd3e0f3c6fb55b303839fbf74e4daa50b49e57f43691447aa046e959c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 1c | 6,461$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 2c | 5,751$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed No | 3c | 5,370$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.22 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8119…50bfbacked No | 1c | 3,618$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 1c | 2,681$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 1c | 2,600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed No | 2c | 1,646$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed No | 1c | 1,425$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e4…9b0dbacked No | 2c | 1,400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf356…577cbacked No | 2c | 1,393$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed No | 1c | 1,391$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 5c | 735.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 6c | 511.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +11.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc6…16abbacked No | 39c | 499.99$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 61c | 453.88$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.01 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked No | 39c | 363.01$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Yes | 47c | 346.12$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.12 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 44c | 243.62$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.15 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 60c | 176.94$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.78 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x651a…9f8fbacked Yes | 69c | 175.01$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 57c | 174.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 62c | 162.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.66 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a43…14e8backed No | 40c | 139.6$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce94…5d59backed No | 35c | 126.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…1532backed No | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e14…86f0backed Yes | 62c | 110.48$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…5561backed Yes | 60c | 110$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf82e…5b63backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d69…0354backed Yes | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 78.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…ac99backed No | 41c | 78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc347…97bdbacked Yes | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 64c | 57.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 61c | 55.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83e1…6993backed No | 39c | 51.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 51.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11d…1d0dbacked No | 36c | 50.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 60c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4384…175fbacked Yes | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 62c | 40.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd96…e623backed No | 42c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked No | 40c | 37.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked No | 37c | 34.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e8…21c9backed No | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 57c | 27.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…eea3backed No | 45c | 26.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…2c0dbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…852fbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…5adebacked Yes | 64c | 18.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Israel President events on December 29?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "F-35" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" 12+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hamas" or "Hezbollah" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hanukkah" or "Chanukah" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Syria" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Turkey" or "Erdogan" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "border" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hostage" 4+ times during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "pardon" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "phase two" or "second phase" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "real peace" or "legitimate peace" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say the N-word during Israel President events on December 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.