Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "Syria" during Israel President events on December 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e14bfbece423d7c5ff95ee9b1e82df25c3623af5540cd97579cb2e7744f172f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 0c | 16,051$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 0c | 11,121$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 0c | 11,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…1e5abacked No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 15c | 1,765$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.48 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ed44backed No | 47c | 948$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 18c | 933.19$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.31 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…a29ebacked No | 47c | 874$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.78 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed Yes | 53c | 795$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.65 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…e2febacked No | 15c | 692.41$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 47c | 612$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.64 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…3c30backed Yes | 53c | 612$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 14c | 584.56$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.05 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 52c | 575$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8132…a491backed Yes | 53c | 562$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked Yes | 53c | 561$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.67 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed No | 47c | 431$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.57 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed No | 15c | 416.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed No | 47c | 409$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.23 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…fbe0backed Yes | 53c | 409$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ad…b0cfbacked No | 45c | 390$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.47 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed Yes | 53c | 328$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 53c | 312.55$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.3 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…96e8backed Yes | 53c | 312$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.64 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x523d…cc1dbacked No | 47c | 296$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe47d…907bbacked Yes | 53c | 277$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 61c | 236.09$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.88 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed No | 47c | 232$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.04 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…cbbdbacked Yes | 63c | 209.28$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…1532backed No | 37c | 192.9$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…1175backed No | 23c | 182.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 177.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 36c | 154.07$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x731d…32c9backed Yes | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373c…afbcbacked Yes | 60c | 134.68$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed No | 47c | 112$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed Yes | 53c | 103$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb5…440cbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…ac99backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…6fc0backed No | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d7…824dbacked No | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 37c | 98.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Yes | 52c | 97.93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked No | 41c | 90.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 13c | 85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2341…75aebacked Yes | 55c | 72.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…d6f0backed Yes | 76c | 66.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 70c | 55.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf72e…5928backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 58c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc347…97bdbacked Yes | 61c | 45.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…59b3backed Yes | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed No | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…8412backed No | 50c | 40.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa11d…1d0dbacked No | 42c | 40.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes | 59c | 37.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed Yes | 55c | 36.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 38c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 43c | 28.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb41b…c2e1backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…603bbacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cd…03afbacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 64c | 18.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "Syria" during Israel President events on December 29?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "F-35" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" 12+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hamas" or "Hezbollah" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hanukkah" or "Chanukah" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Turkey" or "Erdogan" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "border" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hostage" 4+ times during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "pardon" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "phase two" or "second phase" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "real peace" or "legitimate peace" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say the N-word during Israel President events on December 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.