TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0e29…1a0c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
138
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Middle East, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 57 out of 100; worst Venezuela at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT4456.8%25 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+31.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 44 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+36.4%+$4
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.8
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.55
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$150.5
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+25.7%+$9.2
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+63.2%+$81.36
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.33
Will France strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.8
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.3
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+49.4%+$110.7
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$22.5
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+71.5%+$83.4
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+491.4%+$274.2
US downs another Iranian drone by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+261.7%+$112.18
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+173.3%+$147.12
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+244.8%+$106.5
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$14.4
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+354.5%+$78
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+67.9%+$22.25
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+106.4%+$170.78
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+334.8%+$35.42
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$10.47
Will Trump say "Middle East" during meeting with Netanyahu?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$14.62
Will Trump's meeting with Netanyahu not air?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$71.09
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$15.01
Showing 25 of 44 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST3148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hillary's remarks not air?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$12.37
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$159.87
US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$58.8
Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+49.3%+$9.9
Will Trump say "Bus" during Mamdani events on November 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+47.1%+$6.4
Will Trump say "Cuomo" during Mamdani events on November 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+47.1%+$7.4
Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" during Mamdani events on November 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+47.7%+$75.91
Will Trump say "Affordability" during Mamdani events on November 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$10.6
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+96%+$52.31
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$621Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+134.6%+$835.39
Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 10 executive orders in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT+243.8%+$85.1
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.3
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.8
Will Trump say "ICE" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will Trump say "Dome" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.19
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.2
Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.04
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.17
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT+46.9%+$13.25
Will anyone say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during the 2nd Democratic Mayoral Primary on June 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$18.6
Will anyone say "COVID" during the 2nd Democratic Mayoral Primary on June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+27%+$8.5
Will anyone say "Sanctuary City" during the 2nd Democratic Mayoral Primary on June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$13.8
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.1
Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT+824.7%+$85.85
Trump x Elon talk by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.4
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST2544%11 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+40.1%+$4.3
Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$22.75
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during December press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+342.8%+$92.9
Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$36.95
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+132%+$39.26
Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$10.94
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$35.87
Fed Derivative: "No Change" or "25bp cut" favored on Monday?backed No Change · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$114.29
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.25
Will Powell say "Update" during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.47
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.41
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.05
Will Powell say "Probability" during September press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+227.6%+$30.29
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.79
Will Powell say "Judge" during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT+247.5%+$32.05
Will Powell say "Downbeat" during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+85%+$10.57
Will Powell say "China" during June Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.8
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+48.6%+$43.82
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.55
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+47.9%+$9.06
Will Powell say "Comment" during June Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+60.6%+$10.78
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during June Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+154.9%+$39.49
Will Powell say "Summer" during June Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+34.2%+$5.1
Will Powell say "Future" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 50 or more times during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.5
All 25 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-43.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+149.7%+$42.57
Will Russia announce a Christmas truce?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$14.43
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$109.63
Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+25%+$6
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+35.1%+$5.2
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$24.85
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday at least 15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$32.15
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday at least 20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$11.72
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$16.4
All 9 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST70%0 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 24, 2025, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-62.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Aug 26, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Space — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+77.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$27.3
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.