Us Politics · resolved market
Trump x Elon talk by Monday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8808001f9869fdda30e15ebaa003d1641e7f9569120d16107e7113e23435a7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 3c | 10,857$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.27 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a00…8734backed Yes | 6c | 9,251$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba32…deaabacked Yes | 5c | 4,046$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 3,739$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.27 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 1c | 3,544$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 6c | 3,333$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.24 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 5c | 3,269$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.99 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 5c | 3,174$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 2,430$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.87 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 3c | 1,913$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 7c | 1,677$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.03 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 8c | 1,660$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.01 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,278$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f7…9769backed Yes | 6c | 1,166$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f0…bdd3backed Yes | 2c | 1,098$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…e179backed Yes | 2c | 1,087$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a3…a0aabacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 8c | 979.74$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.73 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 810.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed Yes | 5c | 747.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 9c | 649.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 4c | 617.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…6582backed Yes | 4c | 478.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +138.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a4…05f5backed Yes | 6c | 414.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbc…0c54backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a26…0402backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 9c | 290.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…b36cbacked Yes | 16c | 279.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4402…924bbacked Yes | 5c | 264$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6f…3d57backed Yes | 9c | 250$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…f71abacked No | 77c | 250$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 21c | 237.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf14c…4e18backed Yes | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…713bbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 8c | 189.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 159.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 9c | 140$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 22c | 126.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 21c | 111.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 61c | 74.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 39c | 38.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked No | 78c | 24.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeddd…76b2backed No | 78c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.