TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "Cuomo" during Mamdani events on November 21?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,534
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,453

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,534 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x06ab…d376backed No67c99.97$67 inWon+$32.99475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+51.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd6…16f8backed Yes33c78.79$26 inLost-$2680%0 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0bb6…32b9backed No70c40$28 inWon+$12580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7604…78b5backed Yes31c35$11 inLost-$10.85742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e29…1a0cbacked No68c23.13$16 inWon+$7.43148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0221…9964backed No72c22$16 inWon+$6.16540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked No70c22$15 inWon+$6.65935.6%21 W · 38 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74b6…41d8backed No78c20$16 inWon+$4.4933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-50.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf04e…2773backed No80c20$16 inWon+$4666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick77cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No68c15.63$11 inWon+$541238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No75c15$11 inWon+$3.7510127.7%28 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No69c15$10 inWon+$4.6512545.6%57 W · 68 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.