Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" during Mamdani events on November 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9abcef76184446565a16090c75c793ac13c15c8e56e420997517c1a74c301d03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 8c | 2,758$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.18 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked Yes | 31c | 1,337$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.72 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…b3f6backed Yes | 8c | 1,320$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd872…258cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,031$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed No | 75c | 874.37$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.01 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x320a…4453backed Yes | 1c | 773.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfa…07c3backed No | 63c | 700$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 68c | 687.79$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.05 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 76c | 678.57$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.68 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 6c | 600$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 38c | 453.39$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 72c | 422$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.7 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 16c | 399.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed Yes | 15c | 395$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec73…6af3backed Yes | 38c | 387.6$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0234…62dabacked Yes | 37c | 325.39$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…16d4backed Yes | 10c | 316.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…5769backed Yes | 24c | 293.91$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…7cc7backed Yes | 33c | 271.49$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.56 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 70c | 260.68$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.79 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 66c | 245.25$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.38 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked No | 68c | 235.21$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.91 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 20c | 222.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…73adbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…bf8abacked Yes | 29c | 181.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde6f…4a7bbacked No | 76c | 155.79$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe966…0228backed No | 72c | 153.56$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…4602backed Yes | 40c | 129.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked No | 63c | 110.14$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +96%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe78f…218ebacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked No | 66c | 89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…99adbacked Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6380…e74fbacked Yes | 31c | 78.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…3480backed Yes | 33c | 77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked No | 66c | 75.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04e…2773backed No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa5…3590backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8181…5f91backed No | 71c | 67.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb0…2a51backed Yes | 21c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked Yes | 31c | 63.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 31c | 61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aba…9dfdbacked Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bde…a842backed Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Yes | 25c | 53.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…4afbbacked Yes | 30c | 50.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae3c…ee83backed Yes | 32c | 46.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…78b5backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…b68cbacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ce…83d5backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -91.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed No | 67c | 33.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…6adcbacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c23…99e1backed Yes | 36c | 28.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a6…237fbacked No | 78c | 26.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +147.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe99b…d599backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb6…32b9backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" during Mamdani events on November 21?this page
- Will Trump say "9/11" during Mamdani events on November 21?No won
- Will Trump say "Affordability" during Mamdani events on November 21?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Bus" during Mamdani events on November 21?No won
- Will Trump say "Cuomo" during Mamdani events on November 21?No won
- Will Trump say "Egg" during Mamdani events on November 21?No won
- Will Trump say "Epstein" during Mamdani events on November 21?No won
- Will Trump say "Fred" during Mamdani events on November 21?No won
- Will Trump say "Grocery" during Mamdani events on November 21?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hell" during Mamdani events on November 21?No won
- Will Trump say "Hotel" during Mamdani events on November 21?No won
- Will Trump say "ICE" during Mamdani events on November 21?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Little" or "Liddle" during Mamdani events on November 21?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Marx" or "Marxist" or "Marxism" during Mamdani events on November 21?No won
- Will Trump say "Queens" during Mamdani events on November 21?No won
- Will Trump say "Working Class" during Mamdani events on November 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.