TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "Grocery" during Mamdani events on November 21?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,150
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,040

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,150 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes25c1,197$303 inWon+$893.81376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.29per pick48cpaid+91.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5cfa…07c3backed No77c1,170$903 inLost-$903.1520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-68.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No6c499.91$29 inLost-$29.4211120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf04e…2773backed No80c327$261 inLost-$260.9666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick77cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No74c280$208 inLost-$208.26230.6%19 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf87b…180abacked Yes24c273$65 inWon+$207.921747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56da…fca2backed Yes25c250$63 inWon+$186.9862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x939d…3b3cbacked Yes23c220$50 inWon+$1703100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+147.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes17c200$34 inWon+$1667343.8%32 W · 41 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x887f…a4cbbacked Yes20c199.85$40 inWon+$159.971136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes15c194.8$29 inWon+$165.48966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+87.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes20c100$20 inWon+$808142%34 W · 47 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes16c98.01$16 inWon+$82.3319236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc288…3480backed Yes21c74$16 inWon+$58.262250%11 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes25c60$15 inWon+$4531840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes27c44$12 inWon+$32.23862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick32cpaid+94.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked No69c22$15 inLost-$15.185935.6%21 W · 38 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.