TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x887f…a4cb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
54
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Dota2, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Dota2 at 52 out of 100; worst NBA at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST2326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid0%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$45
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$45
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$220.19
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+127.3%+$84.99
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$278Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$278.26
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+900%+$843.12
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$255.29
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$15.13
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+246%+$49.2
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$128.19
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$101
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$349Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+46.6%+$163.03
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$200.84
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$12.59
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+274.6%+$151.02
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$17
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+106.4%+$99.94
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$90.41
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$104.51
All 23 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$34.77
Will Tony Blair be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.44
Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$19.07
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$662Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$662.16
Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$250
Will Trump say "Grocery" during Mamdani events on November 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+401.1%+$159.97
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+447.5%+$1,033.06
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$513Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$512.7
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+53.1%+$102.9
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+61.4%+$108.33
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.66
All 11 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-60.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Suns vs. Rocketsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$49.08
Rockets vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$74.28
Clippers vs. Hornetsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+56.2%+$114.41
Thunder vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$16
All 4 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-24.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Dec 5, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: 49ers (-7.5)backed 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+108.3%+$78
Bills vs. Texansbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$27.24
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Nov 23, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5)backed MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+88.3%+$353.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 22, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Florida State vs. NC Statebacked NC State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+53.4%+$84.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons (BO3)backed G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$12.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold close between $4500 and $4600 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.