TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Clippers vs. Hornets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Clippersof Clippers, Hornets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,716,080
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,829,119

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,716,080 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,291 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe90b…5da2backed Hornets1c94,857$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.921,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8605…750fbacked Clippers52c86,225$45,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,225.132657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae5…8342backed Clippers75c70,275$52,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,586.351346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Hornets45c57,922$26,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,064.7415443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Clippers53c56,043$29,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,340.1896447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Clippers51c50,000$25,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,50026253.8%141 W · 121 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Hornets33c44,330$14,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,662.584,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Clippers52c37,822$19,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,254.711,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed72…b8b0backed Clippers54c37,022$19,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,030.172245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9165…5b98backed Hornets50c36,654$18,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,438.0525248.4%122 W · 130 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd71a…9498backed Hornets47c32,000$15,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,13314549%71 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Clippers53c28,302$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,301.8911654.3%63 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Hornets25c26,999$6,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,749.6470147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd43c…04e8backed Hornets47c26,500$12,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,45511535.7%41 W · 74 L-12.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hornets51c26,411$13,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,599.745,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Clippers54c25,231$13,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,674.112,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Hornets46c25,000$11,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,50038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Hornets49c21,487$10,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,528.4487144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Hornets29c21,018$6,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,116.0426038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hornets48c20,819$9,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,947.549,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Clippers50c20,000$9,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,099.991,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Clippers53c18,868$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,867.9234062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb07c…dc32backed Hornets46c17,391$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0001070%7 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+26.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hornets19c16,616$3,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,177.068,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Hornets22c15,050$3,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,321.7580146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Hornets33c14,048$4,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,583.329458.5%172 W · 122 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Hornets46c13,882$6,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,446.0944459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Hornets48c13,811$6,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,560.13,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9609…29bdbacked Clippers46c12,834$5,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,884.01633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b6…630cbacked Hornets48c12,500$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0006352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hornets50c11,517$5,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,758.382,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0d0…f32dbacked Clippers52c11,500$5,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,519.99966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+48.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Hornets0c10,601$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.017211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Clippers50c10,323$5,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,119.631,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Hornets46c10,159$4,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,673.0923135.1%81 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x394a…d309backed Hornets47c10,075$4,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,685.67757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Hornets8c10,010$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.0634645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Clippers66c9,735$6,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,316.1927917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b4…27f7backed Hornets17c9,314$1,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,598.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Hornets40c9,101$3,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,675.4376850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17c1…a606backed Clippers64c9,049$5,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,286.042352.2%12 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-21.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Hornets48c8,200$3,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,935.9847751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c5d…19bdbacked Clippers54c8,086$4,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,719.64560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+34.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Clippers52c8,047$4,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,838.2769852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Hornets46c7,506$3,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,452.992650%13 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Hornets47c7,322$3,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,441.2815551%79 W · 76 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42cb…8412backed Clippers75c7,245$5,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,841.027259.7%43 W · 29 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Clippers50c7,188$3,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,59444648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2182…92b0backed Clippers50c7,148$3,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5742100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb60…137abacked Hornets2c7,100$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-73.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Clippers50c7,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,50066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7835…bf29backed Clippers52c6,931$3,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,326.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfceb…2194backed Hornets47c6,921$3,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,252.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Hornets0c6,854$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.858820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5a…8f58backed Hornets51c6,829$3,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,514.976241.9%26 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x19fd…5838backed Clippers51c6,666$3,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,244.115925.4%15 W · 44 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1709…af58backed Hornets10c6,600$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.645328.3%15 W · 38 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+15%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Hornets63c6,475$4,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,079.9859646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Clippers53c6,420$3,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,992.141,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3657…6cd3backed Clippers52c6,145$3,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,949.559256.5%52 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Hornets52c6,133$3,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,164.5847748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Hornets47c5,900$2,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,77362351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked Hornets47c5,815$2,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,733.0111558.3%67 W · 48 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c06…db24backed Hornets28c5,568$1,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,582.655933.9%20 W · 39 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+60.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Clippers60c5,505$3,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1832,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Clippers53c5,335$2,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,507.4315549.7%77 W · 78 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1467…51e3backed Clippers51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,45010941.3%45 W · 64 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8892…99f9backed Clippers54c4,900$2,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,278988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick59cpaid+50.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf2a8…45adbacked Hornets46c4,870$2,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,239.11952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf60f…2b17backed Hornets52c4,812$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,520.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Clippers52c4,236$2,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,049.691,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd81d…b365backed Hornets47c4,200$1,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,97411149.5%55 W · 56 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x50fd…cd30backed Clippers53c4,200$2,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9742740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x699d…7b47backed Hornets2c4,179$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.796918.8%13 W · 56 L-0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f95…d8cdbacked Hornets52c4,169$2,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,184.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d2b…97fdbacked Hornets49c4,080$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.26543.1%28 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked Hornets45c4,009$1,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,791.4513743.8%60 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Clippers54c4,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,839.9576249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec5e…49bbbacked Clippers54c3,979$2,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,830.511050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Hornets48c3,688$1,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,768.474,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf704…bed4backed Hornets24c3,670$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87016943.8%74 W · 95 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Clippers68c3,590$2,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,137.7748046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Hornets25c3,583$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.3512545.6%57 W · 68 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Hornets47c3,531$1,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,672.347957%45 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3479…db82backed Clippers53c3,500$1,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,645366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+33.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd83a…733ebacked Hornets48c3,500$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,680520%1 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.44per pick64cpaid-72.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x540c…a634backed Clippers55c3,427$1,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,542.279445.7%43 W · 51 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x447e…9710backed Clippers49c3,376$1,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,728.815251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Hornets48c3,372$1,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,618.548938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7547…77d3backed Clippers53c3,200$1,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5043100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+80.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bb6…8effbacked Hornets48c3,200$1,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,536540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c14…7bc1backed Clippers54c3,125$1,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,437.4911142.3%47 W · 64 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Hornets53c3,018$1,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.2918047.8%86 W · 94 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Clippers52c3,017$1,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.0713455.2%74 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Hornets46c3,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38043051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dfc…78cdbacked Hornets48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,440560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+73.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Hornets49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47048347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbae6…4da5backed Clippers53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4103100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+80.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Hornets47c2,852$1,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,340.662,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57b7…fcf0backed Clippers71c2,821$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.231752.9%9 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick65cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.