TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "oil" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,478
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,446

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,478 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x36b2…99dcbacked No1c8,138$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4064…82c6backed No0c8,107$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked No16c4,132$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.38520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee21…e2febacked No24c3,052$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.53742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+108.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No12c2,510$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.36933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No13c2,280$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1c0…3deebacked No15c2,008$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+106%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No20c1,997$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.51764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6636…bf37backed No9c1,957$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.56922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-61.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c14…cc49backed Yes80c1,509$1,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.931070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+50.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x82c6…4060backed No15c1,392$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7130…c66fbacked Yes80c1,343$1,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8499…83a8backed No18c1,257$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.91742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+147.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed No12c1,101$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.731241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b21…deb6backed No12c1,002$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.35812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.41per pick54cpaid-83.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed No9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb44…4fd5backed No17c999.96$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce5b…047abacked No18c900.92$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No10c779.29$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.544316.3%7 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc3b…6094backed No17c755.9$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad23…47c4backed Yes79c714.7$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.851957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid+17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc419…1372backed No15c655.06$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3740%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2f06…8aa2backed Yes80c647.65$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No13c640.51$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.946841.2%28 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x405f…4940backed Yes71c621.89$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-53%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0aaf…4637backed No28c599.99$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc09…9024backed No13c599.98$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-55.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x202d…2dcdbacked Yes73c530.32$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-54.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee1c…9f06backed No30c518$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed No26c517.32$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.61540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid+15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f36…f293backed No20c507.33$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26ae…50e2backed No15c500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No7c495.36$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.684134.1%14 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No25c442.24$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.563145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes71c433.43$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.841464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+43.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No10c415.05$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.051136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed No12c399.96$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471471.4%10 W · 4 L+4.0wins+0.28per pick43cpaid+92.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4afc…f01cbacked No28c357.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked No16c326.7$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.22933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-22.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd30…81fbbacked No31c320.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb2e…7c01backed No19c316$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b20…25bbbacked Yes75c309.28$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.18333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick69cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa111…0c79backed No17c300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f11…157abacked Yes69c288.39$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5834…f0cbbacked No13c277.38$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x18e1…a449backed Yes75c262.56$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes76c255.95$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No14c246.71$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.01633.2%2 W · 61 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37f8…b5e5backed No14c245.29$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72a2…7b65backed Yes72c200.91$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x227f…41e3backed No20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc720…8f88backed Yes70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb701…bb62backed Yes80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed No11c199.97$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222941.4%12 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid-8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0464…9484backed No27c185.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick17cpaid+64.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Yes75c169.99$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.92638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1078…fcf9backed No13c164.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x844d…3059backed No13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebf8…92b8backed No24c151.37$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18de…1f14backed No10c149.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x578f…34c0backed No14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d1…8437backed No35c141.45$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-55.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd397…5f62backed No15c139.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x255e…4979backed No14c138.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x887f…a4cbbacked No15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-24.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x54f9…2697backed Yes77c129.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.61330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24ce…af12backed No25c125.59$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.65333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x093c…96a6backed No22c115.91$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.03366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick23cpaid+173.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes70c114.92$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.431758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x825f…0997backed No16c113.28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca00…2256backed No18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e0b…95b7backed Yes78c105.01$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.09250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21b2…b602backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fc0…17cabacked No19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54f5…d9c7backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x78b1…f58fbacked No22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-55.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5f7…42a9backed No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+39.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdea…27a7backed No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1601…ed94backed Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked No15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.82828.6%8 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9986…1dfbbacked No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0702…d5f9backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc63a…6fc0backed No15c99.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid+46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd829…95f9backed Yes73c99.99$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+43%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23cd…2e45backed Yes78c96.05$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.55450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9750…46acbacked No13c94.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2eb…c299backed Yes77c80$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick64cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8327…ff66backed Yes79c76.07$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.07250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d86…5073backed Yes80c75$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.152846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes78c69$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.961963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+21.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4350…914cbacked Yes73c68.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x477d…55a9backed Yes77c64.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.72462.5%15 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+26%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf0e7…9281backed Yes75c60$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes71c56.32$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.321266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+25.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes74c52$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.68771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick45cpaid+58.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ffc…8e9cbacked Yes77c51.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161656.3%9 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+27%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb266…ccbdbacked Yes67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+252.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x212f…a834backed Yes72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd898…aaf1backed Yes74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.