Venezuela · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "border" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8247ee9f7f205c6666ab3c1f8812dfd569b0315b478652dc2f279adb05208d5

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $8,217
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $8,263

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,217 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb100…6461backed No	59c	526.76$313 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$213.57	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c10…df5cbacked No	56c	510$286 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$224	25	52%13 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	6c	508.65$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.31	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-71.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No	66c	417.36$276 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.73	43	48.8%21 W · 22 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa923…6704backed No	77c	415.3$318 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.93	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No	69c	340$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.6	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+2.1wins	+0.12per pick	53cpaid	+27.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes	77c	321.4$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.9	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	40c	299.99$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	68	41.2%28 W · 40 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed Yes	49c	285.52$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88ff…fa1bbacked Yes	40c	277.09$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.72	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.21per pick	46cpaid	+40.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No	53c	266.24$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.81	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes	30c	238.23$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.47	41	34.1%14 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed Yes	45c	235.46$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.69	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No	16c	216.54$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$181.89	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6650…71b6backed Yes	16c	199.99$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.16per pick	44cpaid	+147.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad4e…12f1backed No	63c	199.96$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.99	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	+31.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4732…2f88backed Yes	22c	180$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.6	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	41cpaid	-55.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x738f…ba83backed Yes	34c	180$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.6	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-2.7wins	-0.21per pick	44cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes	32c	149.99$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.5	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.13per pick	29cpaid	+56.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe309…958dbacked No	70c	142.62$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.62	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	72cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes	36c	141.66$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed Yes	33c	137.81$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.39	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-3.9wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d86…5073backed No	71c	130.26$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.29	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ad1…6d88backed Yes	38c	104.16$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Yes	41c	100$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc09…9024backed Yes	30c	100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.24per pick	38cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd680…2251backed Yes	22c	91.93$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd91…f0a0backed Yes	22c	90.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed No	45c	90.91$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37f8…b5e5backed Yes	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes	37c	88$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.56	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca16…f878backed Yes	42c	56.56$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.13per pick	49cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x48dd…e8b6backed Yes	36c	55.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No	61c	50$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.5	60	40%24 W · 36 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5481…2841backed No	60c	50$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe991…9969backed Yes	44c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.17per pick	42cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fbb…77eebacked Yes	26c	42.38$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e07…fa47backed No	59c	42.31$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.31	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	64cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0520…89c2backed Yes	55c	40.13$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.15	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.15per pick	35cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b6…9344backed Yes	27c	40$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.21per pick	46cpaid	+45.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4ae…a648backed Yes	43c	40$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.2	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd31c…7424backed No	75c	40$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42e5…5adebacked Yes	33c	36.36$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	54cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x477d…55a9backed Yes	40c	34.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	24	62.5%15 W · 9 L	+4.4wins	+0.18per pick	44cpaid	+26%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed No	56c	28.26$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.41	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed No	54c	25.82$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.82	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.28per pick	47cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d1e…ce59backed No	55c	25$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.25	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump say "border" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event