TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "China" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,884
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,187

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,884 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5652…c7b4backed No6c3,632$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.19540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3c…4337backed No38c2,745$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.14540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe70…eefabacked No52c1,843$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed No33c1,454$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.192157.1%12 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+49.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c14…cc49backed Yes62c1,311$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.941070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+50.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x993f…3ee3backed No35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes61c999.94$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.981030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c5…b315backed Yes71c943.7$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes43c800$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4562454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6beb…6ea2backed No39c603.09$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes39c569.99$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.79650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+51.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed No33c499.97$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.991241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4984…69d2backed No36c437.35$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.45425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+106.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e17…c6b5backed Yes64c436$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No42c370$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.23145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e93…78bcbacked Yes58c350$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1474100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+138.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked Yes64c348.99$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.64425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa51c…db68backed Yes61c327.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.87560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d1e…ce59backed Yes61c326.72$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.42540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd38d…5895backed Yes64c310.1$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.11233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No28c297$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.09933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8691…28a0backed No39c256.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x852a…3188backed Yes17c256.4$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.662955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+28.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6650…71b6backed Yes11c229.82$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.93560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+147.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72a2…7b65backed Yes52c217.34$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.45366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes40c203.86$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.871758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5344…c194backed Yes50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Yes50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8feb…63fcbacked Yes49c180.03$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.822100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e66…8cf9backed Yes61c178.92$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No40c168.25$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.256841.2%28 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecf6…8145backed Yes62c161.42$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b21…deb6backed No38c153.79$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.85812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.41per pick54cpaid-83.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Yes49c150$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.52638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed Yes63c149.99$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.491643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked No49c137.95$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.51414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Yes52c130$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632045%9 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+28.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd482…355dbacked Yes62c129.99$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.31442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes51c129.99$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.74134.1%14 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65d5…a9ccbacked Yes71c120.99$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.09366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes71c119.2$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.863063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf256…3767backed Yes53c117.45$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed No46c114.43$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.982050%10 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x025b…ae93backed No44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd78d…cd73backed Yes48c110$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.2560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+102.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4a2…3e09backed Yes65c109.99$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes61c108.56$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb266…ccbdbacked Yes11c101.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+252.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea93…d9bdbacked Yes17c100$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x575f…9287backed Yes65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+111%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c10…df5cbacked No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302552%13 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd829…95f9backed Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+43%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c09…c556backed Yes34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes41c99.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed No58c99.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.33616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-72%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc903…b175backed No29c99.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.99450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+156.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x311a…447cbacked Yes61c98.36$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.36633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick15cpaid-6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd898…aaf1backed Yes23c97.76$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.76540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f1e…b799backed Yes64c94.11$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.57560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd40d…b2fabacked No36c92$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.12425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-67.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x606c…92f8backed No44c91.45$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-53.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee21…e2febacked Yes61c88$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.94742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+108.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed No43c86$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.981471.4%10 W · 4 L+4.0wins+0.28per pick43cpaid+92.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No33c85.07$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.674316.3%7 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c1f…6823backed Yes61c82.95$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a05…e4b8backed Yes60c80$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8242…d187backed Yes65c80$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes18c78.8$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.63248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-71.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed No40c78.31$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.053751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes56c70$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.86040%24 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x477d…55a9backed Yes49c65.88$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.52462.5%15 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+26%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb61d…b3acbacked Yes61c65.57$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.57450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x732d…3526backed Yes61c65.41$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.41333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes58c65.38$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid+15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed No66c64.81$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.77944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+28.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6565…4255backed Yes55c63.78$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…a4e8backed Yes67c62.69$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.692100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0c8…c5d9backed Yes24c61.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+311.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4806…417cbacked Yes39c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.572100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…811ebacked Yes73c59.51$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.063100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+78.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e60…0099backed Yes52c59.14$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes52c55$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5f1…572abacked No39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3277…7996backed No39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x577f…3765backed Yes57c50.08$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.78771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+52.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21b2…b602backed Yes62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fc0…17cabacked Yes60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd737…71bbbacked Yes52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e5b…4ef4backed Yes74c49.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick64cpaid+26.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a9d…69fbbacked No40c49.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202714.8%4 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b07…de95backed Yes61c49.8$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dee…9a79backed No40c49.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No26c48.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.486771.6%48 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xabe5…d99abacked No45c47.92$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f66…3feabacked No42c47.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick21cpaid+155.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f04…bceabacked Yes69c45.47$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa76e…1dbebacked Yes61c40.57$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Yes66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.61540%6 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-39.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a04…1993backed Yes56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.61283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+44.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f3f…c4a9backed Yes67c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.32450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.