Venezuela · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "Russia" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6088123dd7387fe5faaff07fcf96c071ea79f4ee9952b2ca2bf81adc340ffed6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33e0…7d46backed Yes | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.96 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked No | 44c | 1,444$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked No | 67c | 999.97$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.98 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed No | 21c | 639.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ac…d477backed Yes | 33c | 455.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…8078backed No | 40c | 248.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 14c | 238.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.38 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +4.7wins | +0.47per pick | 33cpaid | +168%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 39c | 234.7$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.44 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed No | 44c | 230.66$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5763…1c22backed Yes | 49c | 208$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.99 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 38c | 188.55$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.54 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…dbcbbacked No | 46c | 186.02$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 56c | 167.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 52c | 149.71$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.05 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes | 75c | 147.29$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +4.6wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…0ebabacked No | 77c | 142.52$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked No | 58c | 142$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x833b…d4bbbacked No | 72c | 139.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Yes | 61c | 136$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…ae93backed No | 41c | 120.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…83a8backed No | 44c | 108$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +147.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad4e…12f1backed No | 37c | 101.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked No | 38c | 101.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…4a49backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -72%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…bde4backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd829…95f9backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +43%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb33c…4ac3backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +145.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…e2febacked No | 60c | 94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb8…5e8fbacked Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…2f88backed Yes | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3f…c4a9backed Yes | 61c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c5…b315backed Yes | 63c | 76.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…0082backed Yes | 64c | 73.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…f280backed Yes | 61c | 65.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 41c | 61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 47c | 55.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +119.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 37c | 54.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606c…92f8backed No | 42c | 47.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc347…97bdbacked Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…5c3ebacked No | 74c | 46.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…6cc3backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x844d…3059backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100c…49e7backed Yes | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 68c | 44.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked No | 44c | 41.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6273…95c8backed Yes | 55c | 35.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabc8…fd71backed Yes | 60c | 33.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…7c65backed Yes | 62c | 32.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bf…1800backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d27…d430backed Yes | 66c | 30.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee1…2a78backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 40c | 29.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed Yes | 42c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +26%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 57c | 26.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 67 | 71.6%48 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c7…3545backed Yes | 70c | 24.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…643abacked No | 45c | 24.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…311abacked Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2c…e158backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a04…1993backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2eb…c299backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…d37abacked Yes | 64c | 18.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7094…530abacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de9…3171backed No | 71c | 15.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "Russia" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "CIA" or "FBI" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "China" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Cilia" or "Flores" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Cuba" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "F-35" or "drone" or "helicopter" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Iran" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Maduro" at least ten times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Maria" or "Corina" or "Machado" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Minnesota" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" at least ten times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "border" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "cocaine" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "communist" or "communism" at least three times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "dictator" at least three times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "fentanyl" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "oil" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "tariff" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.