TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "dictator" at least three times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$159,430
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$162,310

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,430 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d8a…bcadbacked No0c92,044$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes58c12,687$7,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,327.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5927…7cacbacked No70c11,158$7,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,769.730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked No12c2,880$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.92333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-28.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No54c2,858$1,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,552.862454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No60c2,185$1,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,314.881764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x74db…4ca5backed Yes50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b04…6274backed No6c1,697$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.89560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4064…82c6backed No4c1,677$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed Yes1c1,618$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,601.931330.8%4 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick12cpaid+977.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9787…26b5backed No44c1,379$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cc2…5003backed No65c1,354$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.8742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee4…276fbacked No64c1,127$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.741464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…d3dcbacked Yes47c1,111$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff05…fad7backed No1c1,035$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.52120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed No47c1,001$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.56425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No55c999.87$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.944348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5879…10e8backed Yes51c974.84$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c14…cc49backed Yes36c951.14$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.411070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+50.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2930…4cf8backed No56c887.98$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.71742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc7c…d86fbacked Yes62c854.34$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd30…81fbbacked Yes54c759.06$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0894…d819backed No62c742.01$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.62425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2100…2e40backed No4c729.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0e7…9281backed Yes72c618.22$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.521573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1d1…1e37backed Yes38c581.58$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.58333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec0c…8589backed Yes65c575.44$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.494100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+115.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xff17…5745backed Yes41c556.41$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.417100%7 W · 0 L+2.9wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+80.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No40c536.86$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.073145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6385…93f2backed No30c499.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d1e…ce59backed No23c468.7$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.88540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3aef…3f5ebacked No31c466.82$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.13633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No64c463.34$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.746841.2%28 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd78d…cd73backed No5c430.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.97560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+102.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3592…c81abacked No5c418.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39f0…ef06backed Yes30c399.99$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+237.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3119…c8f8backed Yes52c388.24$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.24560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No10c371.73$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.98248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-71.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd38d…5895backed Yes55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.641233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes74c346$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.16933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No11c319.18$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.65633.2%2 W · 61 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc23d…82c8backed No63c318.83$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.8440%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a60…89b6backed No39c312.42$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c75…6a33backed Yes36c291.67$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5f7…42a9backed Yes35c280$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+39.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes48c274.93$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.534134.1%14 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecf6…8145backed Yes37c270.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.27366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a40…d801backed Yes38c263.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.16560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+57.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed Yes48c250$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1301553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes57c241.49$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.172528%7 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-58.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xca00…2256backed No49c237.31$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.57944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed No62c235.22$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.632835.7%10 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d12…bdf6backed No9c232.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.83650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60df…107cbacked No5c232.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb4…b099backed Yes45c226.67$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.67825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-46%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed Yes45c223.54$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.541553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes50c213.44$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.721080%8 W · 2 L+4.7wins+0.47per pick33cpaid+168%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes33c200$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+44.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f11…157abacked Yes38c200$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed Yes48c200$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.81643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x852a…3188backed Yes79c189.39$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.982955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+28.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x89bf…8349backed Yes35c172$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1123100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+92.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x36b2…99dcbacked No28c142.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6636…bf37backed Yes51c140$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.8922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-61.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked No51c129.63$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.111526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x155c…1b09backed Yes39c128.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.212100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+119.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67a6…ddb1backed Yes48c125.11$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.11475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+33.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Yes79c125$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.051540%6 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-39.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab7b…f350backed No21c120$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9760%0 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcce5…afb0backed Yes35c117.86$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.61540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+40.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc858…d6dabacked No9c117.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaa2…c75fbacked No44c113.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a1c…c03abacked No50c110.7$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-36.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x55d2…7165backed No47c107.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes37c107$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.472050%10 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No45c102.06$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.981241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+56.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9eea…d62ebacked Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x02aa…c515backed Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc17…52e6backed Yes66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-46.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf00c…e62bbacked Yes51c98.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.41560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+49.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes42c95.24$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.241266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+25.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c27…d673backed Yes35c91.43$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba79…4c9ebacked No51c91.23$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Yes39c88.01$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7133backed Yes75c87.59$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.685100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed No29c87.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-55.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8ef…7690backed Yes51c85.63$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.58540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-34.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04f6…311abacked Yes36c83.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.331656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bc7…ff87backed Yes37c81.28$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.281040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58ff…7e02backed Yes36c80$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.131241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-30.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5012…0082backed Yes39c76.79$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.79757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+64.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes40c74.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.321540%6 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe7e…9c6bbacked Yes41c72.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+142.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc347…97bdbacked Yes42c71.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.43977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick58cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x738f…ba83backed No59c70$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.181323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd120…19fcbacked No57c69.58$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x606c…92f8backed Yes36c66.67$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.67616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-53.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e3b…eeb1backed No62c64.4$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.