TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Maria" or "Corina" or "Machado" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$134,788
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$134,883

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,788 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d8a…bcadbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3c…4337backed No52c5,600$2,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,704.38540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Yes3c4,210$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5176…abc2backed Yes1c2,325$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc20c…e2bdbacked No50c1,652$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.041250%6 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+48.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No48c1,280$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.582454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c14…cc49backed Yes54c1,121$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.991070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+50.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No45c1,061$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.011764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed No34c1,000$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.41241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5b3…4155backed Yes49c959.99$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0df3…53d7backed Yes9c759.11$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+32.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa51c…db68backed Yes46c733.9$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.51560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1be9…47e1backed Yes50c720$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No45c710.68$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.193145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0327…5e15backed Yes66c700$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee1…5a04backed Yes68c606.03$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No51c600$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.726841.2%28 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0735…005dbacked Yes59c584.85$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.63333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid+20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11e8…5b74backed Yes52c527.35$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.021442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-42.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcad…0047backed Yes53c436.88$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.251250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0c4f…0f33backed Yes50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40af…abb2backed Yes51c396.67$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid+92.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes30c365.67$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.411250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Yes57c349.99$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.992638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes46c343.48$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+44.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes40c295.41$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.42050%10 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x983c…385dbacked Yes50c289.38$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.641030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-39.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes23c280$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3597…ea17backed No60c271.91$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-58.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a5e…8fb9backed Yes50c267$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ca9…e423backed Yes65c232.11$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2930…4cf8backed No26c227.11$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.29742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b53…29eabacked Yes46c217.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb83…42d5backed No46c216.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.17366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+75.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No75c209.33$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.333161.3%19 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No46c207.88$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.154348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd00f…032abacked Yes35c204.44$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b21…deb6backed Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.41per pick54cpaid-83.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0702…d5f9backed Yes50c200$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc2…5003backed No47c199.99$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0894…d819backed No48c199.99$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4732…2f88backed Yes25c199.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-55.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed Yes45c199.1$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4260%0 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xca00…2256backed No51c194.46$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.46944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed No45c188.88$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.971553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d7c…93b2backed Yes50c180$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc9b…c6f4backed Yes46c173.91$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8050%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5f7…42a9backed Yes55c150$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+39.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdea1…3585backed Yes46c139.7$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.26250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes17c134.83$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.41633.2%2 W · 61 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d27…d430backed Yes46c130.43$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59fb…eceabacked No36c130$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.81060%6 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.36per pick24cpaid+126.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb883…e610backed Yes72c125.26$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-49.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65a0…ebecbacked Yes63c117.34$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x732d…3526backed Yes61c114.74$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked No45c112.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.81291.7%11 W · 1 L+3.8wins+0.31per pick60cpaid+118.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x61aa…e222backed Yes22c108.81$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.37633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-47.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7133backed No56c107.5$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.55100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a1c…c03abacked No52c105.08$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-36.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes15c105$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.41963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+21.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe7e1…b0f6backed Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea0d…e1c3backed Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked No47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb266…ccbdbacked Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+252.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c10…df5cbacked Yes60c99.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602552%13 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked No13c99.71$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5652…c7b4backed Yes64c99.33$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.47540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf00c…e62bbacked Yes50c95.04$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.32560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+49.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Yes59c92.35$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.072045%9 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+28.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b04…6274backed No48c82.62$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.62560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba79…4c9ebacked Yes52c81.71$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f3f…c4a9backed Yes53c80$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5012…0082backed Yes51c79.19$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+64.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd65…f280backed Yes66c75.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc83b…6c54backed No55c74.26$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.26475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No44c70$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.26040%24 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked No26c70$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.82045%9 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02aa…c515backed Yes55c70$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.34560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed Yes44c69.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.81643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bc7…ff87backed Yes58c68.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1a7…68dcbacked Yes55c67.81$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…9b59backed Yes30c67.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a04…1993backed No37c65.77$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.711283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+44.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x38a1…d1e4backed No75c65.23$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.31250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes62c65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.31540%6 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No57c64.79$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.642268.2%15 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+41.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x80ed…ce26backed No78c63.8$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.22742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf97a…cfe6backed Yes46c63.13$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f6a…61f9backed Yes50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Yes50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-35.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x738f…ba83backed Yes65c60$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcce5…afb0backed Yes27c56.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.37540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+40.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa414…d03dbacked Yes54c55.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-65.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No31c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.51136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x577f…3765backed Yes72c49.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.99771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+52.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaced…e23abacked No50c49.5$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Yes45c45.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.311540%6 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-39.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b28…59ecbacked No51c45.36$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.