TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "fentanyl" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,376
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,213

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,376 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6978…08d8backed Yes57c3,076$1,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,766.841553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc80e…41c8backed Yes76c2,940$2,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,234.6420%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked No21c2,721$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,137.071526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No22c2,406$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.511764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc081…224dbacked Yes79c2,000$1,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,578.2430%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No21c1,876$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,474.98933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f11…157abacked Yes77c1,729$1,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,335366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc09…9024backed Yes77c1,289$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.89714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-55.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1c0…3deebacked No24c1,236$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+106%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked No32c1,190$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.9650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x606c…92f8backed Yes61c1,187$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.15616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-53.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed No22c1,014$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.382157.1%12 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+49.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No24c1,000$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7603145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…3ee3backed Yes67c1,000$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6701353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2930…4cf8backed No24c999$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.24742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed No22c961.54$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+131.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad4e…12f1backed No17c923.37$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.41346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes16c820.21$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.061080%8 W · 2 L+4.7wins+0.47per pick33cpaid+168%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No14c799.98$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.984134.1%14 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bff…7cd6backed Yes60c740$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc419…1372backed Yes79c633.56$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.5140%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x025b…ae93backed Yes79c632.91$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb023…6d90backed Yes80c609$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.220%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x39be…5e7bbacked No20c588$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf397…e1dabacked Yes76c588$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes8c584.88$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.913953.8%21 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+76.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6d1e…ce59backed Yes79c551$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.29540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5c4…0926backed Yes78c500$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-64.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked No23c500$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+121.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed No21c499.98$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.981315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked No22c480.63$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.481414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e14…86f0backed No21c439.41$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.371258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked No24c400$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc63a…6fc0backed No14c388.84$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.6520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid+46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b21…deb6backed Yes76c371.49$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.33812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.41per pick54cpaid-83.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes70c362.07$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.153751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee21…e2febacked Yes19c341$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.77742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+108.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59fb…eceabacked Yes21c340.15$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.421060%6 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.36per pick24cpaid+126.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes78c330.49$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.136040%24 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6636…bf37backed Yes74c310.98$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.98922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-61.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes77c304$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.256841.2%28 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes7c300$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222050%10 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x738f…ba83backed No21c300$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.51323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x405f…4940backed Yes75c300$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-53%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No22c300$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.21241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+56.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa488…4a49backed Yes77c286.92$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.32250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No20c269.37$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.834316.3%7 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40af…abb2backed Yes75c264.91$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid+92.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed No23c260.99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.092835.7%10 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes78c256.38$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.98650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes23c249.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec0c…8589backed No22c247.27$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.374100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+115.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4a2…3e09backed Yes32c241.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.49742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8499…83a8backed No21c239.96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.57742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+147.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed No25c219.82$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.87540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid+15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b7a…c218backed No67c218.36$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.146100%6 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+161.9%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x6b53…29eabacked Yes38c212.87$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x65a0…ebecbacked Yes24c210$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.730%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x24ce…af12backed No20c200$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f2c…e158backed Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd482…355dbacked Yes78c190.15$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.621442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0da7…ca6cbacked No24c185.15$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+109.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes13c177.57$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.96933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-22.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed No23c160$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.411471.4%10 W · 4 L+4.0wins+0.28per pick43cpaid+92.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x202d…2dcdbacked Yes80c150.32$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-54.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed No20c150$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+51.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Yes77c149.99$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.492638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9462…3d7dbacked No20c148.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+146.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes14c143.92$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.71633.2%2 W · 61 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf00c…e62bbacked No29c135.62$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.62560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+49.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked No18c131.1$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.191323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes77c129.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+25.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b20…25bbbacked Yes78c128.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick69cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca00…2256backed Yes79c126.2$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes80c125.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x31b3…c41fbacked Yes74c125$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0329…103abacked No78c120$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc720…8f88backed Yes77c112.61$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.71450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd262…c312backed Yes15c108.47$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbeee…6bf5backed No24c104.88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+319.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b24…11efbacked No22c100.27$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.21771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.28per pick44cpaid+90.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8434…55fcbacked Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3330%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7e1…b0f6backed Yes80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd829…95f9backed Yes79c100$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+43%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb701…bb62backed Yes78c100$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x183a…d514backed Yes78c100$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-67.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed Yes78c100$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc903…b175backed No20c99.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.99450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+156.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64a3…450abacked Yes78c99.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.991163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+36.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9986…1dfbbacked No26c96.15$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7133backed No66c90.91$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.915100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x71f2…c2adbacked No23c88.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+342%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a9d…69fbbacked No23c85.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.192714.8%4 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcce5…afb0backed No24c83.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.33540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+40.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d79…68c3backed Yes79c82.28$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65d5…a9ccbacked Yes76c79.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.79366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes13c78.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-71.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked No26c76.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.922166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed Yes59c73.34$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.981553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5012…0082backed No21c72.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.14757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+64.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.