Venezuela · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Minnesota" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f0272f9cf26e1c1c76ae986a5ffb59d83c1d4dc90b2b68fd4e531640719387f

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $6,902
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $6,278

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,902 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes	28c	1,673$472 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$472.19	30	63.3%19 W · 11 L	+4.2wins	+0.14per pick	49cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No	79c	1,158$918 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$239.71	43	48.8%21 W · 22 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…3ee3backed No	71c	999.99$710 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$290	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c10…df5cbacked No	70c	610$426 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184	25	52%13 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1d1…1e37backed Yes	28c	535.71$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	4c	531.21$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.6	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+4.7wins	+0.47per pick	33cpaid	+168%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	41	34.1%14 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee4…276fbacked No	72c	452.33$326 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.65	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c14…cc49backed Yes	28c	400$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.75	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+2.0wins	+0.20per pick	50cpaid	+50.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x05ea…8cd8backed Yes	21c	296.41$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes	11c	199.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd061…d5e4backed Yes	6c	199.63$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.41	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x183a…d514backed Yes	14c	161.74$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.64	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	48cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7847…3714backed Yes	33c	146.15$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.6	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	+66.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x380f…0053backed Yes	21c	118.95$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.98	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e93…78bcbacked No	73c	107.78$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.1	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.8wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+138.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4deb…0ab4backed No	80c	100$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd680…2251backed Yes	35c	99.99$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked Yes	21c	95.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x017b…3e92backed Yes	57c	90.04$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	35cpaid	-75.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc83…4edfbacked Yes	28c	90$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ac4…e9d5backed Yes	27c	74.07$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…3feabacked Yes	28c	71.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.17per pick	21cpaid	+155.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1dee…9a79backed Yes	20c	60$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-10%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdec2…b015backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41a8…842fbacked Yes	27c	44.23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd482…355dbacked No	79c	40.01$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed No	76c	30.83$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.42	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed No	74c	26.28$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.75	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed No	78c	21$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.62	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x303c…4487backed No	79c	20.25$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.25	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.9wins	-0.49per pick	74cpaid	-68.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed No	77c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.6	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c65…845dbacked No	73c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-15%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd737…71bbbacked No	73c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+13%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53a0…4af0backed No	77c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.6	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.8wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed No	76c	19.99$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.8	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No	73c	15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.05	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+2.2wins	+0.13per pick	52cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump say "Minnesota" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event