Venezuela · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "Iran" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc852f4063dd12363afab8e0c9903e12825c6dc98739a9d57a27c96a25288427
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed No | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed No | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…7d46backed Yes | 67c | 447.27$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.91 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b04…6274backed No | 35c | 286.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3119…c8f8backed Yes | 71c | 281.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9462…3d7dbacked No | 41c | 267.63$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +146.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…7cd6backed Yes | 65c | 200.62$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 65c | 199.98$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 29c | 164.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 34c | 149.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 32c | 146.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 56c | 130$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 45c | 121.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 11c | 112.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 68c | 106.48$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 66c | 100.44$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…d9c7backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…3e92backed Yes | 67c | 75.79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad4e…12f1backed No | 23c | 74.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…afb0backed No | 30c | 68.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae0…f3d8backed No | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 21c | 59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…c515backed Yes | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb0…ae76backed No | 32c | 46.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…811ebacked Yes | 71c | 42.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 64c | 40.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a04…1993backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…87adbacked Yes | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d8…4c58backed Yes | 80c | 37.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb23…a93abacked Yes | 66c | 32.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e63…3f8abacked No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc858…d6dabacked No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…a108backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e7…9281backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed Yes | 56c | 27.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +26%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x645b…893cbacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…0387backed Yes | 69c | 25.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.4wins | -0.34per pick | 57cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc347…97bdbacked Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7325…2936backed Yes | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2eb…c299backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "Iran" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "CIA" or "FBI" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "China" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Cilia" or "Flores" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Cuba" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "F-35" or "drone" or "helicopter" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Maduro" at least ten times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Maria" or "Corina" or "Machado" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Minnesota" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Russia" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" at least ten times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "border" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "cocaine" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "communist" or "communism" at least three times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "dictator" at least three times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "fentanyl" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "oil" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "tariff" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.