Venezuela · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "F-35" or "drone" or "helicopter" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5452c9267f1740621afcd259e7dc2a077d44caeaf840bec0e9e9bfd9b8e0a8a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec3a…a709backed Yes | 7c | 1,636$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 69c | 427.37$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3820…c1b5backed Yes | 6c | 393.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8691…28a0backed Yes | 38c | 390.77$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked No | 49c | 368.11$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.96 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 37c | 303.19$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.71 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 50c | 299.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 8c | 275.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcad…0047backed Yes | 42c | 199.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…5f96backed No | 68c | 191.58$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bb…5048backed Yes | 55c | 163.66$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca00…2256backed No | 66c | 150.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f0…3803backed Yes | 33c | 150$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed No | 68c | 147.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 52c | 136.09$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed No | 49c | 100.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…42a9backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f4…0d0dbacked No | 56c | 88.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +117.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 62c | 80.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…9457backed Yes | 65c | 78.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dee…9a79backed Yes | 43c | 70.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa9…07e4backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed Yes | 49c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +26%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c27…d673backed Yes | 46c | 65.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…3feabacked No | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 21cpaid | +155.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8e9cbacked Yes | 54c | 57.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…5ea0backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e7…9281backed Yes | 57c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…ff87backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked No | 49c | 40.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…ba83backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes | 50c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…be63backed No | 57c | 39.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe786…ab3ebacked Yes | 51c | 37.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…311abacked No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 33c | 35.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…2429backed Yes | 43c | 35.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…5073backed No | 53c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabcb…4695backed No | 67c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +58%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 48c | 31.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…d57ebacked No | 63c | 31.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10a3…ae13backed No | 66c | 30.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…d6bebacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed No | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 79c | 18.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 67 | 71.6%48 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "F-35" or "drone" or "helicopter" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "CIA" or "FBI" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "China" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Cilia" or "Flores" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Cuba" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Iran" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Maduro" at least ten times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Maria" or "Corina" or "Machado" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Minnesota" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Russia" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" at least ten times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "border" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "cocaine" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "communist" or "communism" at least three times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "dictator" at least three times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "fentanyl" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "oil" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "tariff" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.