TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "CIA" or "FBI" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,415
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,629

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,415 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0c97…1b68backed No18c1,582$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,291.421241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed No18c1,310$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.732835.7%10 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked No17c1,306$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.7520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes16c1,252$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.33953.8%21 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+76.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa24d…c232backed Yes14c719.98$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-21.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x27f0…3803backed Yes51c705.13$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.82955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8803…eb1dbacked No77c657.5$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.033100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5f7…42a9backed No17c585.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.32944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+39.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c14…cc49backed No19c573.51$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.821070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+50.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed No14c544.38$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.321080%8 W · 2 L+4.7wins+0.47per pick33cpaid+168%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes11c504.84$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x578a…7eddbacked Yes43c489.03$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No75c474.43$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.613828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed No18c399.99$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.991315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x26ae…50e2backed No18c368.44$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed No20c350$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.71643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce60…6705backed Yes58c297.77$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.93450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No11c270.41$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.814134.1%14 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea16…5dcfbacked Yes18c265$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc59…096fbacked Yes80c250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc081…224dbacked Yes79c232.63$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18330%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4732…2f88backed Yes23c220$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-55.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ff…5e17backed No32c200$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No14c154.51$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.164316.3%7 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf995…307abacked No32c154.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.223100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+172.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xea93…d9bdbacked Yes19c150$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e93…78bcbacked No20c150$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1204100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+138.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x97ec…2213backed No68c149.08$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes60c145.78$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.451758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04f6…311abacked Yes80c125$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b7a…c218backed No52c124.67$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.546100%6 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+161.9%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes64c122.47$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.743751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2eb…c299backed Yes78c120$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick64cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce5b…047abacked No22c119.98$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.59333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9bb…5048backed No13c113.25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.851080%8 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+134.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes10c106$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.082222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c10…df5cbacked Yes50c99.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502552%13 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc09…9024backed Yes79c99.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-55.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes73c99.99$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+25.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No14c99.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.991241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+56.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x577f…3765backed No25c99.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.99771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+52.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc903…b175backed No19c99.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.98450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+156.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d6…4d88backed No17c78.59$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+202.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72a2…7b65backed Yes80c78.18$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.38366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ea…f3f2backed Yes80c72.38$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d86…5073backed No30c69.72$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.892846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes67c69.54$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.593161.3%19 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4fcd…de5ebacked No17c68.38$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.572100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+258%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad4e…12f1backed No19c60$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.61346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbec6…9c81backed No25c56.74$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+298.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4a2…3e09backed Yes60c54.38$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.55742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7847…3714backed Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31c0…20adbacked Yes80c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd680…2251backed Yes29c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcad…0047backed Yes40c47.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x26be…d699backed No75c47.4$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.851729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-28.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3aef…3f5ebacked Yes43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e46…607ebacked No32c43.75$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+56.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5625…bc06backed Yes56c38.96$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf86…601fbacked Yes70c35.81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x691e…cbbbbacked Yes79c30$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a5d…4261backed Yes76c29.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick74cpaid-53.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c89…0ebabacked No71c28.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.31560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x48c7…c143backed No75c26.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.78540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa172…0b26backed Yes75c26.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed No75c26.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-55.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf94c…4484backed No76c26.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0350…f978backed Yes78c25.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaa9…07e4backed Yes79c25.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc83b…6c54backed Yes80c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes79c22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.381435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc80e…41c8backed Yes77c20.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1620%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Yes75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151540%6 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-39.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf94f…393dbacked Yes78c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bbd…7dc6backed Yes78c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8539…82c7backed Yes75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x303c…4487backed Yes80c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16425%1 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.49per pick74cpaid-68.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa344…8141backed Yes80c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2079…8327backed Yes69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.41per pick66cpaid-68.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x178b…0634backed Yes75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a53…54cdbacked Yes79c18.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6893…12b5backed Yes80c18.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8124…938fbacked Yes74c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c65…845dbacked Yes75c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.25757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.