TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" at least ten times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,489
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,963

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,489 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc20c…e2bdbacked No11c8,500$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.161250%6 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+48.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf0e…1f6cbacked No33c3,472$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed Yes67c2,222$1,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.261553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1199…d5f9backed Yes77c1,288$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.48616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-78.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No34c1,017$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.523145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed No22c924.05$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.141241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7080…3d94backed No2c865.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked No30c850.84$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.55650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed Yes68c830.2$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.771553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61aa…e222backed No2c781.64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-47.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed Yes77c663.61$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.681553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…1d63backed No32c613.95$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked No23c600$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes68c590$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6636…bf37backed No32c542$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.44922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-61.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb33c…4ac3backed Yes64c513.69$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.192100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+145.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed No31c505.73$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.222835.7%10 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbcad…0047backed Yes69c501.76$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.551250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2fae…5d6dbacked Yes64c499.98$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf58…c25bbacked Yes68c490$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No19c473.79$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.021741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-31.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No30c441.89$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.711764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7407…19bebacked Yes67c375$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.753100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+161.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No23c349.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.54134.1%14 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd680…2251backed Yes65c338.02$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.02944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea4…c60bbacked No35c285.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f34…4353backed Yes71c270.89$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb4…b099backed No39c259.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-46%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes78c256.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.671241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-30.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No18c243.05$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.31633.2%2 W · 61 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89bf…8349backed Yes72c227.33$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.73100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+92.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed No11c220.54$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.261315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce5b…047abacked No24c219.21$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.61333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3597…ea17backed No49c205.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-58.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.896841.2%28 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No7c188.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.81248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-71.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No14c180$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61ee…cf68backed Yes70c175.29$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.59333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes78c161.36$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.071758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5f1…572abacked Yes65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.85333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes79c150$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.57537.3%28 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c14…cc49backed Yes78c150$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+50.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x184f…e0b2backed Yes69c145.48$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.48616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0702…d5f9backed Yes69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.93450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.581266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+25.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0e7…9281backed Yes76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.581573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed Yes64c130$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ad5…1d61backed Yes77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ef…7690backed Yes75c122.62$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.71540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-34.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca00…2256backed No33c121.31$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb106…bef4backed No34c118.87$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No28c104.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.734316.3%7 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41eb…da1dbacked Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-75%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x738f…ba83backed Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x64a3…450abacked Yes67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+36.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc903…b175backed No32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+156.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd737…71bbbacked Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb90…1917backed No34c99.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a65…25adbacked Yes61c96.91$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.233100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc66e…61d9backed No31c96.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e8b…856ebacked No31c94.9$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.51933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked No28c93.41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.381540%6 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-38.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec1c…5452backed No11c91$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c4f…0f33backed Yes74c83.12$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc858…d6dabacked No15c80.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes69c80$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.86040%24 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x577f…3765backed No32c79.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+52.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3bc7…ff87backed Yes65c76.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.921040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e56…45ecbacked No20c70.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x825f…0997backed No48c68.8$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed No23c68.66$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.792157.1%12 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+49.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd120…19fcbacked No31c64.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b8c…a00bbacked Yes72c55.45$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.45250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x848d…76c1backed Yes68c52$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x606c…92f8backed No39c51.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-53.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a9d…69fbbacked No39c51.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202714.8%4 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x390c…e88ebacked Yes79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301566.7%10 W · 5 L+4.1wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+110.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd062…7929backed Yes69c45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb43c…9f16backed No31c44.38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes64c41.56$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.793751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91d8…8052backed Yes67c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0433…23dfbacked No35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+80.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7e2…cf90backed Yes72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd482…355dbacked No28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x844d…3059backed No40c39.87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.85425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f28…e9f3backed No37c39.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x65d5…a9ccbacked Yes76c31.09$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.46366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc83b…6c54backed Yes66c30.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeacd…8143backed No38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-51.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6b6…9344backed Yes69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+45.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0db4…2f93backed Yes71c29.47$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.47475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3734…4323backed No38c28.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d9a…7991backed Yes78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.64837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked No39c25.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes63c23.49$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.69540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-43%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Yes80c22.56$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…3ae6backed Yes70c21.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.48366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes71c21.12$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.126771.6%48 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca61…f06abacked Yes67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.