TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x61ee…cf68

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
40
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 52 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.7wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-76.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$44
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.29
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40.08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$90
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.2
Will Trump meet with Ahmed Al Shara in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$26
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.34
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$35.1
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+36.4%+$37.34
Will Trump say "Crimea" or "Donetsk" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$23
Will Trump say "Pakistan" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.4
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.05
All 13 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST1127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-48.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$97.25
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$103.63
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$114.08
OpenAI social app in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.8
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$45
Will anyone say or "Artificial Intelligence" during Apple launch event on September 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$261.85
Will anyone say "Revolutionary" during Apple launch event on September 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$72.97
Will anyone say "iPhone" 100+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+135.9%+$95.62
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$110
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$77.79
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+151%+$78.2
US Open Final: Sinner vs. Alcaraz? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+110.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+110.9%+$163
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Aug 19, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-08-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2025, EDT+25%+$6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.