TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump pause or remove 100k H-1B policy by October 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$285,369
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$281,084

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $285,369 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 278 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9c17…83c8backed Yes31c30,394$9,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,270.46850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2be3…688fbacked No67c26,489$17,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,695.75580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+21.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Yes22c19,656$4,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,313.82339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes28c17,357$4,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,853.9235519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes25c12,626$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,120.1817633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf39…3101backed No60c9,077$5,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,656.41875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes29c9,034$2,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,642.3999629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No77c6,801$5,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.0169634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes18c6,329$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.4933313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x018d…7f0abacked Yes24c5,308$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,264.691118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.25per pick43cpaid-70.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb412…3026backed Yes10c4,100$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4101450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d40…ec52backed No58c3,600$2,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5161250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…3ee3backed No60c3,526$2,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,417.892951.7%15 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed No61c3,448$2,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.722222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed No61c3,000$1,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1701100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes18c2,899$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.73923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No76c2,482$1,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.193658.3%21 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x49ff…9817backed No79c2,418$1,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e2…e599backed Yes42c2,395$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0106634.8%23 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes41c2,334$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.8614624.7%36 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No63c2,191$1,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.3511529.6%34 W · 81 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f4f…c44bbacked No56c2,158$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.742751.9%14 W · 13 L+4.8wins+0.18per pick34cpaid+43.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x29a8…3193backed Yes39c2,051$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63d4…a2f1backed No63c2,048$1,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.031936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes6c2,047$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.7213216.7%22 W · 110 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45e…605fbacked No57c1,916$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8311050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes17c1,768$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.0813714.6%20 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8ef…3655backed No71c1,564$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.99742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1c…6e03backed No73c1,516$1,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.97650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked Yes45c1,499$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.554951%25 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2296…f651backed Yes41c1,400$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6238…5f13backed No78c1,343$1,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.561145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7b3…eeb2backed No79c1,268$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.39944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2065…2be5backed No78c1,266$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.593100%3 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed No63c1,200$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4404156.1%23 W · 18 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed No60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4002152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed Yes40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4008547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Yes39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3901353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfee8…4bd3backed No63c999.99$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.22157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes31c902$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.3119236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b0e…0b82backed No62c868.8$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.03425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-60%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06fd…eec4backed No55c867.5$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.131145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c9b…b444backed No61c810$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.91758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+30.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes21c800$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168287.1%2 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes33c799.99$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26815227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes39c744.01$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.525527.3%15 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-49%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x832b…5c91backed Yes42c683.1$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.76633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f17…5df1backed No56c667.86$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.86837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c647.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.241,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b62…9c11backed No54c640.86$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+94.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e38…a1dbbacked No80c625$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1252055%11 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x592b…c038backed Yes26c591.29$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e45…3662backed No66c577.79$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.56955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick67cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes24c536.41$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.6196319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes14c532.16$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.664717%8 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe0…6387backed No54c513.49$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.781442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Yes44c509$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.71526.7%4 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-40.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc561…fa80backed No59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2053959%23 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2303548.6%17 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+36.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes35c500$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17523639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec01…6592backed No60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes27c499.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1354850%24 W · 24 L+9.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+346.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No53c499.99$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.998127.2%22 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No73c498.56$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.7710056%56 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6634…a779backed No64c492.63$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.871070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc00d…b3a0backed Yes42c484.29$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.4540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes24c483.32$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.2656733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe91…509ebacked Yes21c480.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001010%1 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick29cpaid-85.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x663b…a9c5backed No64c468.75$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.751060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+37%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes29c468.23$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.84922.4%11 W · 38 L-7.7wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-56.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No65c450$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.537740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9e…5f7fbacked No79c418.89$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.93164.5%20 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc3e…e98fbacked Yes30c414.03$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.212157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No68c410$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.9722347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x76bd…f258backed No71c399.99$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked No60c364.19$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.325343.4%23 W · 30 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf38e…397bbacked No55c363.76$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed No68c359.49$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.045451.9%28 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd86…1f67backed No62c351.72$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.15825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-60.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed No54c350.74$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.348253.7%44 W · 38 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4967…0b12backed No60c330.6$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-58.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18ad…f4e9backed No78c324.75$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.711573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+13.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes16c312.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50110%0 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed No55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1359958.6%58 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc392…511bbacked Yes29c300$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes39c297.98$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.6410330.1%31 W · 72 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-40%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes41c270$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1114634.8%16 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72f7…1870backed Yes35c265.15$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.18911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-65.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf92e…7dd3backed Yes39c256.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x837b…e8bebacked Yes44c227.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Yes40c222$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.89347.3%44 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed No59c221.88$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.011241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3d…498abacked Yes46c220$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.22924.1%7 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xecf6…8145backed Yes46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3a51…4d73backed Yes31c214.16$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.93520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-74.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No65c210.11$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.0531840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed No57c206.38$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894839.6%19 W · 29 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab8c…256ebacked No60c205$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick67cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed Yes12c202.74$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244528.9%13 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-55.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a7b…cd67backed Yes39c201$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.