TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,327,777
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,960,401

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,327,777 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 726 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd30b…fd73backed Yes18c163,786$29,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,040.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c89,404$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.09254%1 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-91.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes4c75,995$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd968…d5ecbacked Yes15c57,504$8,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,816.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Yes2c57,090$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.2450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4fd…6cc0backed Yes7c56,724$3,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,805.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3769…2799backed Yes3c50,964$1,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,737.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes6c38,558$2,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,353.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e3d…12e7backed Yes11c32,762$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2292…304ebacked Yes3c31,144$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes2c21,563$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.66185.6%1 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick5cpaid+530.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x769c…6c64backed Yes5c21,448$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x120c…2aeabacked Yes16c21,101$3,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,480.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb704…dc1ebacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa372…1b3ebacked Yes1c20,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x281f…4eb7backed Yes25c19,427$4,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,811.8480%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde7f…4745backed Yes16c18,438$3,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,034.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes25c18,280$4,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,573.3714938.9%58 W · 91 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1589…688bbacked Yes26c15,109$4,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,001.8740%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe827…f98fbacked Yes29c15,032$4,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,290.8730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c15,003$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15329.4%3 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-73.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77d7…6547backed Yes2c14,789$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.25520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes26c14,745$3,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,791.922030%6 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2076…4dc1backed Yes29c13,967$4,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,090.4160%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36d1…12b4backed Yes25c13,799$3,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,445.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes3c13,460$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.96651.5%1 W · 64 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-65.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ef…5232backed Yes38c13,100$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c14…805bbacked Yes4c12,516$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick26cpaid-21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b1f…1f2dbacked Yes26c12,228$3,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,153.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbcb…dceebacked Yes2c11,780$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x482f…f849backed Yes3c11,659$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes22c11,006$2,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,386.35944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Yes9c10,982$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.42015%3 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid+196.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa836…1c10backed Yes26c10,941$2,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,796.130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x795d…63e7backed Yes25c10,876$2,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,742.881936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+104%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes11c10,635$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.131513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b91…f577backed Yes0c10,234$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98a6…3055backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2148…639ebacked Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf905…baeabacked Yes4c9,597$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55c4…4b34backed Yes21c9,245$1,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,961.0450%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d1b…b263backed Yes4c9,240$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed Yes27c8,510$2,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,331.06450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked Yes24c8,479$2,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,069.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd344…6862backed Yes24c8,331$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes7c8,114$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.261643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95d9…ab03backed Yes3c8,073$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.18425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-46.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d3…f399backed Yes14c8,067$1,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,131.1450%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8218…d861backed Yes26c7,823$2,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,067.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes3c7,809$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb27f…8908backed Yes2c7,714$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.7120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4580…16e3backed Yes2c7,647$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a8b…a53ebacked Yes15c7,536$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa667…84febacked Yes2c7,475$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.89933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80b1…1846backed Yes3c7,321$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22350%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa839…470cbacked Yes3c7,239$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.6440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3455…ddccbacked Yes3c7,150$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74c4…46d0backed Yes23c7,137$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,644.5760%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe893…f2c0backed Yes28c7,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,960250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75f1…ac62backed Yes3c6,700$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e04…3fb4backed Yes11c6,631$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2762…d65abacked Yes8c6,512$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf720…4599backed Yes43c6,483$2,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7691216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-75%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc2…98a6backed Yes30c6,268$1,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,854.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8bf…c6e3backed Yes31c6,114$1,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,895.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No74c6,000$4,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Yes21c5,917$1,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,262.111020%2 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-57.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Yes25c5,891$1,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,496.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad7…e72bbacked Yes2c5,811$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c5…923dbacked Yes6c5,649$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.61229.1%2 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-62.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0702…d5f9backed Yes31c5,600$1,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,74920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb478…a6f5backed Yes25c5,558$1,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,391.65250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31b8…26e0backed Yes1c5,449$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb26d…b98dbacked Yes3c5,377$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0c9…7afcbacked Yes5c5,260$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2011…9561backed Yes4c5,210$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe917…4944backed Yes21c5,178$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.69616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-77.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x673d…26d4backed Yes22c5,047$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes26c4,990$1,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,285.911225%3 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf51…4b53backed Yes4c4,969$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.09616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick2cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf06d…562fbacked Yes2c4,927$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc64…609ebacked Yes1c4,867$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Yes8c4,707$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No71c4,533$3,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,317.8916250.6%82 W · 80 L+11.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe99c…aff1backed Yes22c4,454$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe489…ebcbbacked Yes4c4,263$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ed6…32a0backed Yes30c4,215$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes25c4,192$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.4837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+64.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes34c4,000$1,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,34610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b98…df12backed Yes26c4,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed No71c4,000$2,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1602100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1ff…55bdbacked Yes28c3,977$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec02…c45bbacked Yes25c3,937$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e9…8b44backed No75c3,760$2,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$958.36742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x437c…dfa4backed Yes19c3,756$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3dc…443bbacked Yes27c3,718$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+84%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb72d…d186backed Yes27c3,704$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcef9…7033backed Yes3c3,594$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes1c3,417$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2260%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6100…46aebacked Yes1c3,333$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.