TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,854,685
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,610,885

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,854,685 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a81…58b0backed Yes0c250,999$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-69.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c228,065$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.27254%1 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-91.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x428b…d8aebacked Yes0c198,513$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.5170%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c181,475$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.44651.5%1 W · 64 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-65.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c0…bd7cbacked Yes0c171,088$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.0930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12e6…0714backed Yes0c171,088$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.0930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5af0…5c59backed Yes0c169,368$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.3730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaa3…d659backed Yes0c156,045$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.0530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6261…e04dbacked Yes0c99,000$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99130%0 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed Yes0c70,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c1…c8a8backed Yes0c64,196$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x186f…8771backed Yes0c62,987$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf6d…b16dbacked Yes0c62,498$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a58…be52backed Yes0c59,798$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6802…955bbacked Yes0c59,498$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e38…8c2cbacked Yes0c59,089$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f5c…4628backed Yes0c58,489$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48ba…7cbfbacked Yes0c58,399$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb537…e27ebacked Yes0c58,299$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7682…3604backed Yes0c56,522$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ed…2649backed Yes0c53,222$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2280%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x135b…c33cbacked Yes0c51,518$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c49,308$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.73329.4%3 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-73.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x656f…b5b4backed Yes1c45,441$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.9740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0c9…7afcbacked Yes0c45,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbee6…2cb0backed Yes0c41,399$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ffc…faf7backed Yes0c41,099$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d93…7550backed Yes0c40,794$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick1cpaid-91.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54d4…d514backed Yes0c39,999$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73aa…b149backed Yes0c39,794$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaee…c25cbacked Yes0c39,399$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5d0…29c2backed Yes0c39,289$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa7c…c2a9backed Yes0c39,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15d3…933cbacked Yes0c37,399$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x513a…2da6backed Yes0c37,399$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d64…128dbacked Yes1c35,795$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeb2…8599backed Yes0c32,800$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ec…9058backed Yes0c32,085$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7043…1425backed Yes0c28,164$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1680%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90b9…1951backed Yes0c28,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2840%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad9a…c3f4backed Yes0c27,324$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9d9…9afcbacked Yes0c27,318$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d2e…b6b1backed Yes0c27,318$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Yes0c25,670$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.6750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ecb…d40dbacked Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8b5…b789backed Yes0c24,380$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.56119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-60.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x019f…29efbacked Yes0c23,195$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58fd…43a6backed Yes0c23,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c23,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2380%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0da…1f3cbacked Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2762…d65abacked Yes0c20,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf3…45a3backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick5cpaid-23.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c11…a9d5backed Yes0c19,689$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e7d…4234backed Yes0c18,200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe160…f546backed Yes0c17,600$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc08…9c86backed Yes1c17,371$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c16,072$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.141478.2%12 W · 135 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd92b…cd58backed Yes0c16,043$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x281f…4eb7backed Yes0c15,887$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8280%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x156e…97f3backed Yes0c15,015$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf6b…db3abacked Yes0c14,989$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82b8…cdc9backed Yes0c14,961$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8404…7a75backed Yes0c14,937$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70f1…b9bdbacked Yes0c14,885$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8582…aa84backed Yes0c14,833$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c14,795$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.06680%0 W · 68 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4500…ed6ebacked Yes0c14,793$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac72…462dbacked Yes0c14,667$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4460%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1712…5d11backed Yes0c14,111$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47c8…f30abacked Yes0c14,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bef…b7c2backed Yes1c12,740$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe14a…b120backed Yes0c12,497$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ba7…3bbdbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x399f…dc63backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35cc…88c1backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21b3…1ddfbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2076…4dc1backed Yes1c10,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7060%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-71%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52bc…38f6backed Yes2c9,889$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf06d…562fbacked Yes0c9,577$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf52…513fbacked Yes1c9,421$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a0f…601abacked Yes0c8,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick1cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd1d…77cdbacked Yes0c7,740$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f7d…7acdbacked Yes0c7,500$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e6f…ddb4backed Yes1c7,181$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f8…d675backed Yes1c7,059$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4572…0383backed Yes1c7,048$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes0c6,412$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb11f…ec34backed Yes0c5,843$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.03825%2 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c5,797$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.274629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa55c…cae9backed Yes1c5,429$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b91…f577backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07b3…3104backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc2e…ae9abacked Yes1c4,500$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x024d…ff8cbacked Yes1c4,346$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0bb…a95bbacked Yes1c4,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2460%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xafa1…5a6bbacked Yes1c3,750$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d5e…450ebacked Yes1c3,614$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.65742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa74b…9425backed Yes0c3,539$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.