TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,481,205
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,074,812

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,481,205 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x425e…99c4backed Yes0c899,295$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfabe…3e22backed Yes0c899,154$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd965…064fbacked Yes0c899,154$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb1b…a3a1backed Yes0c899,124$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9752…20febacked Yes0c684,000$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e84…6f4abacked Yes0c683,000$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa65c…5154backed Yes0c679,500$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…7482backed Yes0c677,600$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8409…d5cdbacked Yes0c496,055$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.0630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x656f…b5b4backed Yes3c457,998$13,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,670.740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cba…b0bebacked Yes0c447,729$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5aa…6f12backed Yes0c447,729$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1380…2a4bbacked Yes0c447,729$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5414…d916backed Yes0c447,729$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c0…bd7cbacked Yes0c447,693$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.6930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaa3…d659backed Yes0c447,693$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.6930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5af0…5c59backed Yes0c447,642$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.6430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a3…2b94backed Yes0c440,895$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12e6…0714backed Yes0c298,462$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.4630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x135b…c33cbacked Yes0c281,900$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c214,534$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.72254%1 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-91.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6261…e04dbacked Yes0c150,030$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.03130%0 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ec…9058backed Yes0c111,277$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.2830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd92b…cd58backed Yes0c96,436$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c83,303$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.93651.5%1 W · 64 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-65.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d0f…70bdbacked Yes0c68,688$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f7c…3569backed Yes0c68,688$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c66,335$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.54329.4%3 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-73.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x428b…d8aebacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ed…2649backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c11…a9d5backed Yes0c43,896$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x437c…dfa4backed Yes11c41,426$4,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,755.6430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa839…470cbacked Yes0c35,776$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c25,551$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.471478.2%12 W · 135 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x900a…6ed3backed Yes1c25,397$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x213d…220ebacked Yes0c24,751$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa575…f2d0backed Yes0c19,516$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.52922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-67.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c14…805bbacked Yes0c18,995$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick26cpaid-21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c14,090$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.64629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked Yes1c13,809$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.31450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe14a…b120backed Yes0c13,154$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7d5…57abbacked Yes0c12,169$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3af2…1b6ebacked Yes0c12,010$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x189d…5f66backed Yes2c11,989$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7043…1425backed Yes0c11,694$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6980%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00ee…1128backed Yes0c11,666$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fae…3e2cbacked Yes0c11,540$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9e6…19f5backed Yes0c11,500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick2cpaid+124.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c00…cddfbacked Yes0c11,481$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9680%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bae…8d58backed Yes0c11,210$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd1f…0d1bbacked Yes0c10,240$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4cf…a9acbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2076…4dc1backed Yes1c10,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11060%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9467…87dabacked Yes1c10,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x881c…0d72backed Yes1c8,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a0f…601abacked Yes0c8,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick1cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf72c…f818backed Yes1c8,000$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42f5…7f78backed Yes0c7,509$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849a…4a19backed Yes1c7,050$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e7a…4587backed Yes1c7,030$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f7d…7acdbacked Yes1c6,776$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.150%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4537…fd02backed Yes0c6,708$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf445…8184backed Yes1c6,500$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes1c6,500$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587842.3%33 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5fb…1e12backed Yes2c6,177$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18e0…d024backed Yes0c5,972$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5150%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c5,655$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.68680%0 W · 68 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Yes2c5,500$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9240%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e0e…a433backed Yes0c5,223$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-73.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac72…462dbacked Yes0c5,195$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2560%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd149…3901backed Yes0c4,923$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66bc…fef5backed Yes1c4,624$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes0c4,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141020%2 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-62.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x137d…8358backed Yes3c3,901$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick5cpaid-31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c3,897$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.55619.6%11 W · 45 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+54.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb940…d1febacked Yes3c3,625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes4c3,352$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.471513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes1c3,246$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No75c3,183$2,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.232254.5%12 W · 10 L+6.4wins+0.29per pick26cpaid+157.9%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x10b6…edc7backed Yes3c3,178$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+89.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d3…f399backed Yes1c3,003$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6650%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfafb…27eabacked Yes1c2,970$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.18933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbcd…9368backed Yes2c2,872$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6993…c79abacked Yes1c2,865$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9880%0 W · 8 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c20…9e4fbacked Yes0c2,800$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.250%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe917…4944backed Yes2c2,702$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.54616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-77.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00c1…dab9backed Yes3c2,537$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed No29c2,486$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,767.22475%3 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.50per pick25cpaid+150.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd8b5…b789backed Yes1c2,272$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.24119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-60.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf06d…562fbacked Yes2c2,100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa91…a63abacked Yes1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbcc…8882backed Yes2c1,981$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b29…a7dabacked Yes1c1,781$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e5…3a31backed Yes1c1,750$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54f3…8483backed Yes4c1,450$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb53…edd1backed Yes2c1,360$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x34f7…d729backed Yes1c1,349$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6402…2fa1backed Yes1c1,325$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff80…1bb6backed Yes1c1,252$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes2c1,200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick40cpaid-84.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.