TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will The Weeknd be the top Spotify artist for 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,939,382
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,635,486

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,939,382 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c470,316$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.16254%1 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-91.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c153,493$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.49651.5%1 W · 64 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-65.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c134,999$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick1cpaid-91.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0da…1f3cbacked Yes1c83,416$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf06d…562fbacked Yes0c51,706$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.3540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a81…58b0backed Yes0c50,999$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-69.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ed…2649backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05da…ae41backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x029f…4d65backed Yes0c46,569$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf679…aa1abacked Yes0c41,411$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.3630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e70…0004backed Yes0c40,692$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabf3…45a3backed Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick5cpaid-23.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa839…470cbacked Yes0c35,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2747…f083backed Yes0c34,961$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.61520%1 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick2cpaid+403.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe14a…b120backed Yes0c34,290$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80b1…1846backed Yes0c32,573$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c32,518$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.021478.2%12 W · 135 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0ef…39b6backed Yes0c28,471$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.08520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-60.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Yes0c27,334$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18e0…d024backed Yes0c26,975$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2076…4dc1backed Yes0c22,020$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.0860%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf3e…0ec6backed Yes0c22,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf52…513fbacked Yes0c20,700$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c14…805bbacked Yes0c20,126$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick26cpaid-21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f7a…d7ccbacked Yes0c20,023$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-71.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0909…91cabacked Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf15…0fb7backed Yes0c19,998$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c19,001$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38329.4%3 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-73.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d3…f399backed Yes0c18,886$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7750%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8b5…b789backed Yes0c18,267$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-60.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c18,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1880%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc64…609ebacked Yes0c16,327$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fd8…4cc6backed Yes1c15,741$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3742…8be1backed Yes0c15,516$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac72…462dbacked Yes0c15,305$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1360%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4537…fd02backed Yes0c15,103$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ecb…d40dbacked Yes0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58fd…43a6backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x400c…2443backed Yes1c14,327$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x908f…35a8backed Yes0c14,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x656f…b5b4backed Yes5c12,636$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb721…596cbacked Yes0c11,710$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53d0…cec4backed Yes0c10,868$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x795d…63e7backed Yes2c10,100$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.81936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+104%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a0f…601abacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick1cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42f5…7f78backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x806d…2220backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-71%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9467…87dabacked Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f09…7884backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c9,322$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.08680%0 W · 68 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdafa…5d32backed Yes0c9,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1080…142abacked Yes0c8,555$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x881c…0d72backed Yes0c8,300$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf445…8184backed Yes1c7,920$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes0c7,458$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x137d…8358backed Yes0c7,080$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.14714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick5cpaid-31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa29a…09c7backed Yes0c6,725$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x024d…ff8cbacked Yes0c6,415$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6631…f242backed Yes0c6,326$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce37…3b15backed Yes1c6,025$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9e6…19f5backed Yes0c6,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick2cpaid+124.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2762…d65abacked Yes0c5,802$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9155…9c4ebacked Yes0c5,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff80…1bb6backed Yes0c5,333$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb940…d1febacked Yes1c5,131$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4240%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2a1…90bfbacked Yes0c5,063$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00c1…dab9backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58ff…7e02backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-60%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa55c…cae9backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ba7…3bbdbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6fa…bfeabacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf2c…b6ebbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc06…0759backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c23…3809backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52bc…38f6backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf3a…e41fbacked Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+241.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1259…13b4backed Yes0c4,877$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e5…3a31backed Yes0c4,500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes1c4,379$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd01…ee78backed Yes0c4,129$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e0e…a433backed Yes0c4,114$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-73.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xebcb…dd4bbacked Yes0c3,975$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf981…37a8backed Yes0c3,919$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa34e…8b37backed Yes0c3,900$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7338…5f95backed Yes1c3,822$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f8…d675backed Yes1c3,611$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd19e…91e3backed Yes0c3,447$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3131…ff28backed Yes1c3,388$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4ce…db6fbacked Yes0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,946$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.914629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c2,848$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.495619.6%11 W · 45 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+54.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9e3…c399backed Yes0c2,807$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3362…5753backed Yes0c2,778$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01ea…bcdebacked Yes1c2,559$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3867…b261backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x685b…2d04backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17b3…03cfbacked Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes1c2,419$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.211513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9de8…2fc6backed Yes1c2,313$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.