Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump say "Crimea" or "Donetsk" during Zelensky events on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x321cc920559961bf0ff152fb6c514aa389c6c1ff163b3f9fddc739d91c2d0bbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 60c | 7,371$4,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,920.11 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 48c | 6,000$2,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,879.8 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 59c | 5,019$2,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080.27 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 72c | 4,090$2,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.2 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 9c | 2,729$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.7 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 41c | 2,011$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.62 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 1c | 1,999$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…0479backed Yes | 50c | 1,829$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.32 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 43c | 1,600$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.57 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 39c | 1,546$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.92 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 56c | 1,280$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.11 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…a1afbacked Yes | 8c | 1,211$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 54c | 1,099$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.77 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed No | 56c | 1,008$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 30c | 951.33$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.91 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 68c | 950.97$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.87 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed Yes | 4c | 800$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 33c | 749.62$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.09 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 52c | 682.78$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.73 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 49c | 608.17$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.91 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Yes | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +61%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 41c | 600$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 108 | 12%13 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 47c | 568.48$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.5 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 35c | 565.63$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.86 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 63c | 542.97$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.21 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 57c | 530$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.25 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 56c | 527.49$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.1 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…1484backed Yes | 38c | 524.22$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 44c | 500.59$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.01 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…d58cbacked Yes | 52c | 500.4$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 487.33$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.76 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03be…f6d9backed No | 67c | 466.41$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.91 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…dbb2backed Yes | 48c | 462.75$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1168…b6eebacked No | 69c | 432.95$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe282…a494backed Yes | 37c | 402.66$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…4effbacked Yes | 55c | 359.43$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 40c | 354$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.08 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…defdbacked Yes | 15c | 342.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3753…dc42backed No | 70c | 322.38$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 55c | 317.51$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.6 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 310.78$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.42 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 37c | 308.33$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.95 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ee…96a0backed Yes | 38c | 307.39$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed Yes | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 55c | 287.24$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.86 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 60c | 270$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.4 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 13c | 269$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…2e7ebacked No | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f5…828abacked Yes | 46c | 259.09$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff5…3c7bbacked Yes | 39c | 253.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 52c | 250$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.61 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6af6…296ebacked Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x665c…e3afbacked Yes | 46c | 230$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f1…d00ebacked Yes | 39c | 228.18$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 44c | 224$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.56 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 41c | 219.51$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 48c | 208.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…985bbacked Yes | 49c | 205.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 49c | 202.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…b445backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…bd4ebacked Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4020…11d1backed No | 51c | 197.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.04 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 54c | 197$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -6.8wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 31c | 194.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 42c | 184$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e4…eff6backed No | 50c | 180$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 45c | 178.48$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…5996backed Yes | 57c | 174.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 59c | 170.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 49c | 162.17$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.18 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 35c | 159.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…6ce6backed Yes | 50c | 158.18$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 63c | 157.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 56c | 153.77$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdb…81d7backed Yes | 39c | 152.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8607…2ccdbacked No | 80c | 151.29$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…4d50backed Yes | 19c | 134.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…28ffbacked No | 61c | 131.92$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +129%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 52c | 124.42$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e3…cad2backed Yes | 48c | 120$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…cb2dbacked Yes | 43c | 117$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb859…23ebbacked Yes | 53c | 114.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5a…2d96backed Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x673e…eb95backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…fbc2backed Yes | 28c | 100.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11db…9831backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe27…52b7backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b88…86c4backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…166bbacked Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Crimea" or "Donetsk" during Zelensky events on August 18?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Card" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Ceasefire" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Marco" or "Rubio" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "NATO" during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pakistan" during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Putin" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rare Earth" or "Mineral" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 15+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Suit" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 12+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.