Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Zelensky events on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa16b5309d233a920ed2e8ae5f6f527455a6c7786bbfb66543c8ae738989623f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d14…7f85backed Yes | 1c | 10,870$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Yes | 3c | 6,656$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 2c | 6,492$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.74 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…0479backed Yes | 2c | 4,145$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…985bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,828$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…5996backed Yes | 3c | 3,188$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed Yes | 1c | 3,082$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 3c | 2,497$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8074…d8dbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,488$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…eccdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,484$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe15d…9507backed Yes | 3c | 1,684$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…8715backed Yes | 2c | 1,470$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 2c | 1,196$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…08f6backed Yes | 3c | 1,102$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf829…bf82backed Yes | 2c | 1,096$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…49e2backed Yes | 2c | 954.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39e5…cd9dbacked Yes | 3c | 673.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7e…3520backed Yes | 3c | 625$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a8…6d0abacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…03d2backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa015…80bbbacked Yes | 5c | 495.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x452d…c27ebacked Yes | 3c | 370.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc481…471fbacked Yes | 3c | 357.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0126…1ed0backed Yes | 3c | 357.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c51…de90backed Yes | 3c | 357$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4830…5b56backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Zelensky events on August 18?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Card" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Ceasefire" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crimea" or "Donetsk" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Marco" or "Rubio" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "NATO" during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pakistan" during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Putin" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rare Earth" or "Mineral" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 15+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Suit" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 12+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.