TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$103,943
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$94,232

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,943 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 211 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb747…b050backed No68c16,551$11,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,290.13537.1%13 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes15c8,429$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,261.154443.2%19 W · 25 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes29c7,608$2,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,224.624852.1%25 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes33c5,917$1,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,959.034450%22 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes23c5,798$1,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.492729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-51.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed No75c5,000$3,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272.081330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-54.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Yes34c4,181$1,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,421.632441.7%10 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+87.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes25c3,925$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.21833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes31c3,210$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.533444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No69c3,064$2,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.4825528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes42c2,929$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,229.923724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+90.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x738b…17dabacked No71c2,842$2,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0c5…f00fbacked No76c2,735$2,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No71c2,416$1,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.964146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes30c2,277$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.9814121.3%30 W · 111 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes13c1,998$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.133828.9%11 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd466…6ce6backed Yes37c1,665$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.75850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed No73c1,534$1,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.753743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed Yes30c1,501$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.35944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+33.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c1f…ec98backed Yes33c1,500$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes11c1,261$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.535632.1%18 W · 38 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f33…0479backed Yes31c1,236$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.851338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62f7…129abacked Yes11c1,220$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.8850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeed6…510ebacked Yes29c1,025$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0785…81c3backed No73c999.99$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2701662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes30c956.19$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.988725.3%22 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes24c900$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2162564%16 W · 9 L+5.0wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+54.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes30c865.16$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.21526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-47.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5e4…eff6backed No62c750$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2851952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes3c718.66$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.95911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-41.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcbf…4ffabacked No68c700.6$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.28785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick59cpaid+52.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Yes34c700$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.851936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-40.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes23c698.82$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.221450%7 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc104…a5c0backed No72c694.24$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.24250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes26c664.97$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.767525.3%19 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No71c642$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.181687.5%14 W · 2 L+4.4wins+0.28per pick60cpaid+63.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes21c615.81$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.714719.1%9 W · 38 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-39.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed Yes33c614.45$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.133033.3%10 W · 20 L-6.8wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-43.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed No70c613.06$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.921060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes27c608.82$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.817733.8%26 W · 51 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed No71c600$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.28862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.22per pick41cpaid+61%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes14c523.68$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7739429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed No66c505$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.052050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed No61c500$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.921250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Yes27c496.42$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1322343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No69c495.75$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.9911542.6%49 W · 66 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1838…5903backed No72c480.89$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.131040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cb…3e65backed Yes31c450$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1403256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes22c423.52$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.143339.4%13 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes22c422.67$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.672927.6%8 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-51.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed No52c418.35$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.131752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed No63c402.73$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.113652.8%19 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7117…3a3ebacked Yes28c400$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-59.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x267c…9b16backed Yes26c373.35$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.872133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf658…dcfebacked Yes24c367.43$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.24425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-66.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c67…8b76backed Yes39c365.99$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.341330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes31c365.16$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.27241.7%30 W · 42 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed No65c350$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.252962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+30%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes34c349.92$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.072626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-40.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ef…5289backed Yes29c344$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.761723.5%4 W · 13 L-4.1wins-0.24per pick47cpaid-53.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8e2f…578fbacked No69c315.36$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.11560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x749f…a8f9backed Yes32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7214…433bbacked No66c303.82$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.82922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-63.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No68c300$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.246933.3%23 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No68c300$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9615451.3%79 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4535…d7a1backed No69c295.3$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.81862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid+16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c1e…cbbbbacked No65c280$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.41233.3%4 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes41c278.87$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.784942.9%21 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed No74c270.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.271346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d33…209abacked Yes23c263.36$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.721050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes25c250$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.514920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes25c250$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.515217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed No69c250$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.514355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ae0…d8d0backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed No74c242.84$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.1910357.3%59 W · 44 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes29c238.15$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.37844.9%35 W · 43 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x88f5…828abacked No67c223.88$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.88955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No69c222$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.823151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed No71c216.09$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.153148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+38.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes32c203.13$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-44.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes38c202$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.244524.4%11 W · 34 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-56.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed No68c200.39$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.62454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5826835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563345.5%15 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46b4…6d63backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x758a…f23cbacked No70c197.47$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.241030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed No73c196$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.93237.5%12 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab07…e6f1backed Yes32c191.03$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.131233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x689d…f3c1backed No74c188.85$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.85666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad46…65a7backed No70c188.73$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.82683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+44.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x35a8…a418backed Yes34c182.08$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No68c175.31$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7130837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x27b8…b68cbacked Yes52c167.37$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.49850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+108.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No69c163.84$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.2424258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x16c0…abafbacked Yes31c162.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0b8…225dbacked Yes74c162.36$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-75%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes15c158.84$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.33253.1%17 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No66c158.13$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.779932.3%32 W · 67 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1ff…55bdbacked No71c150$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.51136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed Yes31c150$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462152.4%11 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick37cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.