Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Zelensky events on August 18?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3674a12c5eec0c75c691fab5502f9db5ef14ed29077e55a946df23a591e20d6

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 18, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $30,511
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $32,179

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,511 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7a14…d748backed Yes	41c	2,500$1,029 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,470.94	44	50%22 W · 22 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed No	48c	2,451$1,189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,188.58	37	43.2%16 W · 21 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No	57c	1,806$1,031 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,031.08	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No	1c	1,750$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+4.3wins	+0.17per pick	11cpaid	+190.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No	1c	1,750$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	+6.2wins	+0.17per pick	13cpaid	+134.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes	37c	1,286$475 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$811	34	44.1%15 W · 19 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes	52c	1,200$622 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$577.69	30	30%9 W · 21 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes	39c	999.03$385 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$614.1	40	45%18 W · 22 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-16%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed No	59c	984$576 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$575.65	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No	64c	952$611 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$611.44	154	51.3%79 W · 75 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed Yes	42c	791$333 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$458.36	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	+3.7wins	+0.13per pick	49cpaid	+30%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed No	60c	500$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No	43c	494.57$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.55	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	-4.6wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	54c	476.6$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$221.45	255	28.2%72 W · 183 L	-17.5wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-32%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes	52c	422$221 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$201.17	13	76.9%10 W · 3 L	+4.2wins	+0.32per pick	44cpaid	+63.6%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed Yes	50c	400.53$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200.53	102	41.2%42 W · 60 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked No	54c	346.3$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-3.0wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked No	48c	342.47$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.39	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed No	50c	339.55$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.03	43	58.1%25 W · 18 L	+4.2wins	+0.10per pick	48cpaid	+16%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	76c	329.67$252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.13	75	25.3%19 W · 56 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked No	63c	327.25$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.17	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-6.1wins	-0.18per pick	43cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed No	62c	322.58$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.12per pick	58cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c1f…ec98backed Yes	46c	300$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.4wins	+0.20per pick	38cpaid	+34.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5e4…eff6backed No	47c	300$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.27	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x267c…9b16backed Yes	52c	300$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-21%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes	35c	289.71$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$189.71	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-3.5wins	-0.20per pick	38cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed No	64c	257.14$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.14	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	-3.0wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes	47c	237.04$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.35	115	42.6%49 W · 66 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No	57c	232.03$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.26	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No	63c	230.33$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.21	47	19.1%9 W · 38 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed Yes	46c	228.79$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.19	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+3.2wins	+0.15per pick	37cpaid	+34.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes	44c	220$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.5	214	26.2%56 W · 158 L	-7.9wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c67…8b76backed Yes	50c	212$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.13per pick	44cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f33…0479backed Yes	36c	210.5$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.72	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes	35c	200$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130.2	49	53.1%26 W · 23 L	+3.7wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9212…2ff6backed Yes	51c	200$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	65c	199.99$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	268	35.1%94 W · 174 L	-38.4wins	-0.14per pick	49cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes	37c	196.73$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.94	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.10per pick	37cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No	54c	192.24$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.4	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	41cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x450a…c24fbacked No	54c	185.94$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No	54c	185$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.9	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ef…5289backed No	54c	185$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.9	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-4.1wins	-0.24per pick	47cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No	43c	160$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.6	77	61%47 W · 30 L	+7.7wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa248…04f3backed Yes	55c	160$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+56.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4020…11d1backed No	63c	158.73$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+21%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes	38c	150.65$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.85	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked No	62c	150$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No	52c	149.99$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.3	77	33.8%26 W · 51 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d33…209abacked Yes	56c	143$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.92	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8a2…973cbacked Yes	50c	138.9$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.45	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	58c	137.74$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.18	417	36.2%151 W · 266 L	-25.2wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	44c	136.96$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.26	87	25.3%22 W · 65 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes	50c	124.03$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.26	69	30.4%21 W · 48 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes	52c	122$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.56	99	32.3%32 W · 67 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	9c	116.55$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.27	394	29.4%116 W · 278 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes	39c	111$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.71	91	38.5%35 W · 56 L	+6.9wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+67%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x288a…4275backed No	54c	103$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.02	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e88…bd30backed Yes	38c	100$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+1.6wins	+0.11per pick	36cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60c2…ed8fbacked Yes	63c	100$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.25per pick	50cpaid	+55.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x260d…fbc2backed Yes	39c	100$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes	39c	100$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	+2.6wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6147…d34ebacked Yes	54c	100$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.8	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe991…9969backed Yes	38c	100$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	24cpaid	-73.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84cb…3e65backed Yes	45c	100$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed No	57c	99.98$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.99	36	52.8%19 W · 17 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed No	61c	81.94$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	103	57.3%59 W · 44 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No	49c	80.98$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.64	141	21.3%30 W · 111 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe6f…7495backed Yes	38c	78.95$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.95	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8617…e460backed Yes	46c	76.09$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.09	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	28cpaid	-64.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4e1…b3c6backed No	52c	67.89$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	61cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed Yes	38c	66.94$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.8	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86e6…f634backed No	62c	64.52$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.09per pick	37cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x452d…c27ebacked Yes	39c	64.1$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.1	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06f8…4ecfbacked No	56c	58$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.48	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes	40c	57.93$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	117	41%48 W · 69 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5941…df44backed No	45c	55.52$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4830…5b56backed No	55c	52.73$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	28cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes	39c	51.43$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.43	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-18%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes	37c	50$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.5	66	65.2%43 W · 23 L	+8.4wins	+0.13per pick	52cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd1cd…5df2backed No	44c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2654…c2b2backed No	44c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+2.6wins	+0.24per pick	49cpaid	+44.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed Yes	57c	50$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.5	41	39%16 W · 25 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed No	65c	50$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes	48c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdeed…4af2backed Yes	45c	44.44$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.44	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.38per pick	62cpaid	+68.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2ab…4481backed Yes	35c	42.86$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.86	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes	54c	40$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.55	47	59.6%28 W · 19 L	+5.1wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+27.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d19…fe0ebacked No	63c	39.68$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.35per pick	60cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x55bc…5b19backed No	64c	39.06$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb9d…e31bbacked No	63c	38$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.94	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	+15%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0b6…f594backed No	51c	37.57$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.1	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+1.7wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf67…bc4fbacked Yes	57c	35.21$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.14	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.21per pick	29cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a6e…b172backed No	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3688…a354backed No	45c	33.6$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.05	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6752…fafbbacked Yes	39c	30$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.3	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+3.3wins	+0.17per pick	38cpaid	+54.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf327…0b68backed Yes	35c	30$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.5	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.12per pick	31cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a79…8e05backed No	56c	30$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a74…b263backed No	59c	30$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	56cpaid	-21%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeacd…8143backed Yes	42c	29.32$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.02	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	61c	29$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	308	37.7%116 W · 192 L	-18.7wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-36%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Zelensky events on August 18?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event