TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump say "Pakistan" during Zelensky events on August 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,781
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,745

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,781 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbad2…5296backed Yes30c5,238$1,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,689.853444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes34c3,114$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,056.354450%22 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes33c1,380$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.362454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No71c1,361$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.1625528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No64c1,100$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7003348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x277f…ed32backed No72c1,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7201717.6%3 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.24per pick42cpaid-64.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes31c888$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.024045%18 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed No68c872.15$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.972962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+30%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d33…209abacked Yes38c860.49$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.731050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c799$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.7830837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked No70c750$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.53324.2%8 W · 25 L-6.1wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-63.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5c1f…ec98backed Yes33c740.99$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.02757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No63c735.81$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.167525.3%19 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed Yes37c689.99$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.791546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No60c657.6$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.263154.8%17 W · 14 L+5.5wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+38.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes32c648.59$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.0214121.3%30 W · 111 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5d9…72eebacked No64c628.4$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No63c600$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3783847.4%18 W · 20 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+81.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x37ef…39b9backed No62c535.14$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c67…8b76backed Yes41c534.48$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.21330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ccb…19cbbacked No71c519.25$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes31c500$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3461450%7 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab07…e6f1backed Yes40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3001233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed No66c500$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3301250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed No60c500$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.664358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes29c499.98$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.992564%16 W · 9 L+5.0wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+54.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No70c483$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.875949.2%29 W · 30 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x450a…c24fbacked No65c464.9$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes44c460.5$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.051833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes38c454.07$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.468725.3%22 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6147…d34ebacked No58c416.56$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.761266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No63c411.35$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2583537.1%13 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aef…9337backed No66c400$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Yes39c393.42$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.991936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-40.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes35c372.09$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.433339.4%13 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x24fb…a48ebacked Yes39c355.77$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.77742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed Yes38c350$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.51921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-42.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeed6…510ebacked Yes58c343.66$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.66742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes38c333$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.463151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed No64c313.48$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6447…69b7backed No64c300$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-81.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No70c300$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21015451.3%79 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe8a1…2b76backed Yes39c300$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed No65c282.97$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.51977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+39.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0815…d0ddbacked Yes36c250$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+52.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed No69c248.58$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.723237.5%12 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No63c248.21$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1561931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes39c247.27$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15139429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes42c244.84$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.864719.1%9 W · 38 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-39.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9212…2ff6backed No65c238$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed Yes42c235.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.3310241.2%42 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes35c228.66$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.6310137.6%38 W · 63 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cb…3e65backed Yes39c226.16$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.753256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x749f…a8f9backed Yes45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.22650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c42…1f72backed No68c217.75$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a79…8e05backed No69c200.5$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.81850%9 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No69c200$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13826835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xdd1e…b315backed No60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes31c200$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1396665.2%43 W · 23 L+8.4wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+18.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes39c199.99$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.54942.9%21 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes37c199.99$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.993438.2%13 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked No60c197.39$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.512626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-40.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc324…4cd6backed No67c191.14$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.831258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes30c181.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.9621426.2%56 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes36c179.99$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.197733.8%26 W · 51 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9e3…cad2backed Yes42c172.05$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.011428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79c9…c040backed No63c163.65$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.82425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No67c160.79$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.4911542.6%49 W · 66 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa248…04f3backed Yes37c160$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.6560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+56.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4020…11d1backed No63c158.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+21%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfdb…7a75backed No65c152.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd466…6ce6backed Yes41c152.8$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.55850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e88…bd30backed Yes38c150$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes41c150$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6410651.9%55 W · 51 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes37c150$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.511647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No67c149$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.833951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ef…5289backed No67c149$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.831723.5%4 W · 13 L-4.1wins-0.24per pick47cpaid-53.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed No68c147.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010357.3%59 W · 44 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f23…27cbbacked No71c140.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x55bc…5b19backed No72c139.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed Yes36c136.85$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.472152.4%11 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick37cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x82d0…9637backed No60c133.55$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No60c113.94$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.977761%47 W · 30 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x98f3…d9b2backed Yes34c112.39$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x725b…576dbacked Yes43c106.17$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.62100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+152.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes43c106.17$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.521376.9%10 W · 3 L+4.2wins+0.32per pick44cpaid+63.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8e2f…578fbacked No62c104$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.39560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a2…973cbacked Yes39c103.08$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes42c102.62$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.521225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e0e…938fbacked Yes50c100.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.94540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f1f…94aabacked No67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672540%10 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfdb…703dbacked No73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732040%8 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed No70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704953.1%26 W · 23 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x03be…f6d9backed No73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614839.6%19 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbcbf…4ffabacked No62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick59cpaid+52.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4680…b33dbacked No60c97.84$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-54.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Yes33c87.58$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.267843.6%34 W · 44 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab6a…3319backed No59c84.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2944…4f3dbacked No60c83.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.