TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during Zelensky events on August 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$70,145
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,640

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,145 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb747…b050backed No54c10,021$5,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,633.033537.1%13 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes44c3,950$1,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,746.474852.1%25 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c1f…ec98backed Yes25c3,355$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.09757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Yes45c3,034$1,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,368.051936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-40.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes24c2,761$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.927525.3%19 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d33…209abacked Yes32c2,338$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.891050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes1c2,060$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.67241.7%30 W · 42 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes32c1,769$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.473444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No64c1,711$1,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.243348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No57c1,480$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.573847.4%18 W · 20 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+81.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed No58c1,430$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.933743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No51c1,249$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.6215451.3%79 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes51c1,111$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.612729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-51.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes28c1,110$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.71450%7 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes31c1,015$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.68725.3%22 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes39c1,000$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.384450%22 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes52c962.22$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.62458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes48c919.15$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.191833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c897.38$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.7430837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7117…3a3ebacked Yes21c883.62$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.04825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-59.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8a2…973cbacked Yes47c767.13$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.381050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed No62c722$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.242962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+30%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb937…9d0dbacked No63c711.1$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.1450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5d9…72eebacked No57c700.54$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.54850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes2c660.38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9110426%27 W · 77 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-22.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x267c…9b16backed Yes27c659.83$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.492133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e2f…578fbacked No79c653.64$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.44560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd36…aac2backed Yes39c644.69$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb38a…8237backed Yes49c639.44$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.09540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-43.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed No48c625$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8a7…6fa3backed Yes48c622.89$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c67…8b76backed Yes45c619.19$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.41330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeed6…510ebacked Yes49c612.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes40c608.98$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.174942.9%21 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f5…fe12backed Yes41c600$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+28.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5e4…eff6backed No60c600$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.971952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0815…d0ddbacked Yes24c593.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.06757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+52.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed Yes52c575.4$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010241.2%42 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24fb…a48ebacked Yes54c571.49$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No58c532.93$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.063154.8%17 W · 14 L+5.5wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+38.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No48c528.56$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.424719.1%9 W · 38 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-39.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes38c512.38$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.0214121.3%30 W · 111 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed No63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1851250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Yes41c487.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x450a…c24fbacked No62c483.87$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.87757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No56c470$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.46933.3%23 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes36c449.96$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.992454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed No53c433$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.184358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x60c2…ed8fbacked Yes51c430.09$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.34475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+55.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e0e…938fbacked Yes61c426.8$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes24c421.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.433339.4%13 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03be…f6d9backed No73c400$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No56c399.99$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1761921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-59.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No57c399.99$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1722650%13 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes34c384.46$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.781225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9e3…cad2backed Yes14c370$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.951428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x749f…a8f9backed Yes55c363.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes42c354.83$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.033438.2%13 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed No59c340.11$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.111346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed No57c337.83$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.783033.3%10 W · 20 L-6.8wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-43.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No49c320$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.27733.8%26 W · 51 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe367…abd9backed No66c310.67$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.67728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-58.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf64f…3091backed Yes48c310.33$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed Yes36c307.26$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.883237.5%12 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-47.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes52c300$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.24839.6%19 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8a1…2b76backed Yes40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bb3…2682backed No55c299.81$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.221844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes44c283.48$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.4311542.6%49 W · 66 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…fbc2backed Yes29c279.99$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.51428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed No53c278$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.662050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes36c276.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.723951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No58c261.04$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.822060%12 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a3…5532backed Yes42c251.74$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7340%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97ef…5289backed Yes40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001723.5%4 W · 13 L-4.1wins-0.24per pick47cpaid-53.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes45c248$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.433030%9 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Yes43c245.42$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.232343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes45c241.62$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5525528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No56c240$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.610651.9%55 W · 51 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes40c230.15$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.121931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No38c229.14$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.064443.2%19 W · 25 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1df6…30a9backed Yes40c225.45$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.51070%7 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf829…bf82backed Yes7c219.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No44c215.83$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.97761%47 W · 30 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x82d0…9637backed No47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.77933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6332…af73backed Yes19c206.77$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7626835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x243f…5a02backed No64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bfc…edb9backed No61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x235c…ba38backed Yes38c199.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7690%0 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb6c0…aa0cbacked No42c193.95$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.53520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-52.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab6a…3319backed No47c185.34$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.6837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c4…812fbacked No54c177.14$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.04785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick51cpaid+78.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes37c174.72$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.652334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-43.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad46…65a7backed No57c174.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.33683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+44.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed Yes27c170.77$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.992152.4%11 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick37cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4020…11d1backed No61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.931553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+21%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfdb…7a75backed No62c160.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.93666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa248…04f3backed Yes46c160$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+56.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79a4…07bebacked No64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.