Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during Zelensky events on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23cf54c89599e9c0996494c6d270f6096ee50a524c302ce0e3427ab0bdbd3360
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 54c | 10,021$5,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,633.03 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 44c | 3,950$1,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,746.47 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1f…ec98backed Yes | 25c | 3,355$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Yes | 45c | 3,034$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,368.05 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 24c | 2,761$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.92 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…209abacked Yes | 32c | 2,338$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 1c | 2,060$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 32c | 1,769$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.47 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 64c | 1,711$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.24 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 57c | 1,480$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.57 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 58c | 1,430$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.93 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 51c | 1,249$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.62 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 51c | 1,111$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.61 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes | 28c | 1,110$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,015$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.6 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 39c | 1,000$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.38 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 52c | 962.22$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.6 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 48c | 919.15$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.19 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 897.38$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.74 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7117…3a3ebacked Yes | 21c | 883.62$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a2…973cbacked Yes | 47c | 767.13$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed No | 62c | 722$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.24 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb937…9d0dbacked No | 63c | 711.1$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d9…72eebacked No | 57c | 700.54$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 2c | 660.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 27c | 659.83$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.49 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…578fbacked No | 79c | 653.64$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…aac2backed Yes | 39c | 644.69$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38a…8237backed Yes | 49c | 639.44$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a7…6fa3backed Yes | 48c | 622.89$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 45c | 619.19$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…510ebacked Yes | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 40c | 608.98$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.17 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…fe12backed Yes | 41c | 600$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e4…eff6backed No | 60c | 600$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.97 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…d0ddbacked Yes | 24c | 593.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.06 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Yes | 52c | 575.4$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…a48ebacked Yes | 54c | 571.49$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 58c | 532.93$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.06 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 48c | 528.56$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.42 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 38c | 512.38$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.02 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Yes | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450a…c24fbacked No | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 56c | 470$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.4 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 36c | 449.96$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.99 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 53c | 433$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.18 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…ed8fbacked Yes | 51c | 430.09$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…938fbacked Yes | 61c | 426.8$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 24c | 421.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.43 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03be…f6d9backed No | 73c | 400$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 56c | 399.99$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 57c | 399.99$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 34c | 384.46$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.78 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e3…cad2backed Yes | 14c | 370$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…a8f9backed Yes | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 42c | 354.83$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.03 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed No | 59c | 340.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.11 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 57c | 337.83$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.78 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -6.8wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 49c | 320$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.2 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…abd9backed No | 66c | 310.67$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…3091backed Yes | 48c | 310.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 36c | 307.26$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.88 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes | 52c | 300$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.2 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…2b76backed Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed No | 55c | 299.81$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.22 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 44c | 283.48$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.43 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…fbc2backed Yes | 29c | 279.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 53c | 278$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.66 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 36c | 276.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 58c | 261.04$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.82 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a3…5532backed Yes | 42c | 251.74$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 45c | 248$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.43 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 43c | 245.42$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.23 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 45c | 241.62$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.55 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 56c | 240$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 40c | 230.15$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 38c | 229.14$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.06 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…30a9backed Yes | 40c | 225.45$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf829…bf82backed Yes | 7c | 219.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 44c | 215.83$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.9 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…9637backed No | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…af73backed Yes | 19c | 206.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…5a02backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfc…edb9backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x235c…ba38backed Yes | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c0…aa0cbacked No | 42c | 193.95$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab6a…3319backed No | 47c | 185.34$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c4…812fbacked No | 54c | 177.14$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.04 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 51cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 37c | 174.72$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed No | 57c | 174.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 27c | 170.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4020…11d1backed No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed No | 62c | 160.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa248…04f3backed Yes | 46c | 160$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a4…07bebacked No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during Zelensky events on August 18?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Card" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Ceasefire" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crimea" or "Donetsk" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Marco" or "Rubio" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "NATO" during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pakistan" during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Putin" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rare Earth" or "Mineral" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 15+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Suit" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 12+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.