Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 15+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f23a4b26a63fce4134b24aa102196ec4685d8af2274f61cf0d32b35279e4b30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 79c | 7,872$6,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,662.79 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 39c | 3,803$1,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,327.03 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 59c | 3,333$1,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,966.47 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 10c | 2,501$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.86 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 40c | 1,784$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.51 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 29c | 1,711$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.47 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 58c | 1,537$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.82 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 66c | 1,527$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.5 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…a1afbacked Yes | 7c | 1,519$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,491$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.95 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 60c | 1,488$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.91 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 8c | 1,318$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.16 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 11c | 1,251$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.94 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 45c | 1,200$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 1,171$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.84 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc202…2afdbacked Yes | 59c | 1,000$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 7c | 975.01$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.57 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Yes | 66c | 911.21$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.77 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1537…c480backed Yes | 58c | 907.49$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Yes | 65c | 801.39$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 34c | 784.19$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.66 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb937…9d0dbacked No | 39c | 764.65$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 35c | 742.58$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.51 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 60c | 689.37$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.62 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -6.8wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x62f7…129abacked Yes | 9c | 670$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 65c | 602.57$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 66c | 593.02$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.68 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…a8f9backed Yes | 72c | 570.27$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…5b19backed Yes | 24c | 564.34$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked No | 35c | 482.06$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Yes | 17c | 479.04$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.16 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x394b…0cecbacked Yes | 11c | 478.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 36c | 476.84$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.73 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 71c | 454.71$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a7…6fa3backed Yes | 66c | 453.19$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…209abacked Yes | 63c | 451.67$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.05 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…510ebacked Yes | 67c | 449.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes | 69c | 420.17$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 37c | 402.59$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.38 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2979…5137backed No | 74c | 370.44$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 9c | 354.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 37c | 340.08$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.12 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae0…d8d0backed Yes | 22c | 333.72$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 65c | 331.24$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.3 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c2…f46dbacked Yes | 21c | 324.02$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed No | 76c | 313.97$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.49 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9374…036abacked Yes | 59c | 310.73$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ee…96a0backed Yes | 49c | 306.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 31c | 305.71$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.28 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed Yes | 73c | 302.25$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.05 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e4…eff6backed No | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.98 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 31c | 297.51$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.71 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 68c | 295.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4020…11d1backed No | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 26c | 278.45$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.05 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27b…cd51backed No | 40c | 275.65$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…62efbacked No | 37c | 268.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.76 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 31c | 267.86$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.93 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 64c | 240$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.6 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 42c | 237.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.04 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed81…82eebacked No | 35c | 236.85$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.64 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf454…7bcbbacked No | 41c | 233.87$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +211.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 51c | 233.39$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.68 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…72ebbacked No | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…a48ebacked Yes | 69c | 231.19$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed No | 37c | 225$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.75 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x746a…f0a8backed No | 67c | 211.18$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 9c | 210$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 60c | 199.43$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.23 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 9c | 199.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed Yes | 42c | 195$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e83…0eb6backed Yes | 21c | 190.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 22c | 189.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed No | 58c | 180$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9f…2c30backed No | 39c | 178.65$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 29c | 177.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28b…a852backed No | 42c | 175.94$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed Yes | 57c | 175$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab6a…3319backed No | 29c | 171.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9f…6f68backed Yes | 72c | 171.49$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ffabacked No | 59c | 165.11$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.11 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91c5…2ed4backed Yes | 61c | 163.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 60c | 163.32$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.65 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6c…eb44backed Yes | 11c | 160$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…2153backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e45…3662backed Yes | 67c | 148.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e91…42e5backed No | 34c | 146.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.86 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…39b1backed No | 77c | 144.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed Yes | 65c | 140$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d9…72eebacked No | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…938fbacked Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b6…f594backed No | 18c | 128.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.93 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…0479backed Yes | 58c | 123$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa788…e033backed No | 45c | 121.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.35 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…f634backed No | 38c | 119.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 15+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Card" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Ceasefire" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crimea" or "Donetsk" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Marco" or "Rubio" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "NATO" during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pakistan" during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Putin" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rare Earth" or "Mineral" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Suit" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 12+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.